Bracketology - 2/28/22

March is tomorrow. But I figured you already knew that.

What a wild day Saturday was. 6 of the top 7 seeds lost on Saturday, all on the road. It was the first time ever that every team in the AP Top 6 lost. The big winner was Baylor. They showed they could overcome the loss of JTT by beating Kansas. With 11 Q1 wins and Top 4 metrics, Baylor is now a surefire 1 seed. They honestly could jump to the #2 overall seed with another good week and an Arizona loss. But there are still two weeks to play, there's plenty of action left.

 West

1 Gonzaga (1) Portland, OR

16   Cleveland St (64)

8 Boise St (30)

9 TCU (34)

5 Texas (17)

12   Iona (49)

4 Connecticut (16) Buffalo, NY

13   Vermont (52)

6 Marquette (24)

11   Michigan (44)/Loyola-Chicago (46)

3 Tennessee (10) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Texas St (57)

7 USC (25)

10   San Francisco (37)

2 Purdue (8) Indianapolis, IN

15   Colgate (60)

South

1 Arizona (2) San Diego, CA

16   Bryant (67)/Nicholls (68)

8 Seton Hall (32)

9 SDSU (35)

5 Arkansas (19)

12   South Dakota St (50)

4 Illinois (15) Milwaukee, WI

13   Toledo (53)

6 St Mary’s (22)

11   Davidson (43)

3 Texas Tech (9) San Diego, CA

14   Montana St (58)

7 Michigan St (27)

10   Creighton (39)

2 Duke (7) Greenville, SC

15   Jacksonville St (59)

Midwest

1 Baylor (3) Fort Worth, TX

16   Norfolk St (65)/UNCW (66)

8 Murray St (31)

9 Wyoming (36)

5 Alabama (18)

12   North Carolina (45)/Indiana (47)

4 Providence (13) Buffalo, NY

13   Chattanooga (51)

6 LSU (23)

11   Memphis (42)

3 Wisconsin (12) Milwaukee, WI

14   Northern Iowa (55)

7 Iowa (28)

10   Miami (FL) (40)

2 Auburn (5) Greenville, SC

15   Longwood (62)

East

1 Kansas (4) Fort Worth, TX

16   Texas Southern (63)

8 Colorado St (29)

9 Xavier (33)

5 Houston (20)

12   North Texas (48)

4 UCLA (14) Portland, OR

13   New Mexico St (54)

6 Ohio St (21)

11   Wake Forest (41)

3 Villanova (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Princeton (56)

7 Iowa St (26)

10   Notre Dame (38)

2 Kentucky (6) Indianapolis, IN

15   CSU-Fullerton (61)

Last Four In

Michigan

North Carolina

Loyola-Chicago

Indiana

First Four Out

Rutgers

SMU

Virginia Tech

BYU

Bracketology - 2/25/22

This year I believe highlights how different things have become with the shifting from the RPI to the NET. With the RPI, it was very difficult to move up multiple spots with one game, due to the amount of emphasis placed on a schedule. In the NET, however, the emphasis placed on efficiency margins means it is very possible for a team to drastically improve their rating with one blowout win. This is especially helpful for mid-majors, who in the RPI days found their ranking to be difficult to raise up. For example, Loyola smothered Evansville by 51, and saw their NET rise 10 spots, giving their at-large case more legitimacy. It will be interesting to see what teams take advantage of this in the last two weeks, as every game matters.

West

1 Gonzaga (1) Portland, OR

16   Longwood (64)

8 Boise St (32)

9 Seton Hall (33)

5 Texas (18)

12   Rutgers (47)/North Carolina (48)

4 Connecticut (16) Buffalo, NY

13   Vermont (54)

6 Arkansas (21)

11   Davidson (44)

3 Wisconsin (12) Milwaukee, WI

14   Wagner (57)

7 USC (25)

10 San Francisco (39)

2 Duke (8) Greenville, SC

15   Jacksonville St (60)

South

1 Arizona (2) San Diego, CA

16   LBSU (63)

8 Colorado St (31)

9 TCU (35)

5 Ohio St (17)

12   Iona (50)

4 Providence (14) Buffalo, NY

13   Chattanooga (52)

6 Marquette (23)

11   Notre Dame (43)

3 Tennessee (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Toledo (55)

7 Michigan St (28)

10   Wyoming (37)

2 Baylor (5) Fort Worth, TX

15   Montana St (59)

Midwest

1 Auburn (3) Greenville, SC

16   Norfolk St (66)/UNCW (68)

8 Iowa (30)

9 Loyola-Chicago (34)

5 Houston (20)

12   North Texas (49)

4 UCLA (15) Portland, OR

13   New Mexico St (53)

6 St Mary’s (24)

11   Creighton (42)

3 Texas Tech (9) San Diego, CA

14   Texas St (58)

7 Xavier (27)

10   Miami (FL) (38)

2 Purdue (7) Indianapolis, IN

15   Cleveland St (61)

East

1 Kansas (4) Fort Worth, TX

16   Texas Southern (65)/ Nicholls (67)

8 Murray St (29)

9 SDSU (36)

5 Alabama (19)

12   Memphis (45)/Indiana (46)

4 Illinois (13) Milwaukee, WI

13   South Dakota St (51)

6 LSU (22)

11   Michigan (41)

3 Villanova (10) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Princeton (56)

7 Iowa St (26)

10   Wake Forest (40)

2 Kentucky (6) Indianapolis, IN

15   Colgate (62)

Last Four In

Memphis

Indiana

Rutgers

North Carolina

First Four Out

Florida

SMU

BYU

Dayton

Bracketology - 2/21/22

The Top 16 was revealed on Saturday, giving better insight on what the committee is looking for. It appears that the value of wins are king, as many teams saw their seeding improve based off beating top-tier teams. There is also a strong value placed on the metrics, though not to the point that it trumps wins. It will be interesting to see how the teams near the bottom are seeded, given many of them have great wins and questionable losses. These teams will have a chance to play their way off the bubble the next couple weeks, and many will, one way or the other. 

Also, as we go down to the last few weeks, check http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ for more great brackets.

West

1 Gonzaga (1) Portland, OR

16   Colgate (64)

8 Boise St (31)

9 Iowa (33)

5 Alabama (18)

12   North Texas (49)

4 Texas (16) Buffalo, NY

13   Vermont (54)

6 Arkansas (24)

11   Notre Dame (41)

3 Illinois (12) Milwaukee, WI

14   Princeton (57)

7 USC (26)

10   Indiana (40)

2 Duke (8) Greenville, SC

15   Jacksonville St (61)

South

1 Arizona (2) San Diego, CA

16   Longwood (63)

8 Colorado St (30)

9 TCU (36)

5 Ohio St (17)

12   Iona (50)

4 Providence (15) Buffalo, NY

13   Chattanooga (52)

6 Connecticut (21)

11   Rutgers (43)

3 Tennessee (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Toledo (55)

7 St Mary’s (25)

10   Miami (FL) (39)

2 Baylor (5) Fort Worth, TX

15   Montana St (59)

Midwest

1 Auburn (3) Greenville, SC

16   Southern (67)/New Orleans (68)

8 Seton Hall (32)

9 Wyoming (34)

5 Houston (19)

12   Creighton (46)/Florida (48)

4 UCLA (14) Portland, OR

13   New Mexico St (53)

6 Marquette (22)

11   Michigan (42)

3 Texas Tech (10) San Diego, CA

14   Texas St (58)

7 Xavier (27)

10   Wake Forest (37)

2 Purdue (7) Indianapolis, IN

15   Cleveland St (60)

East

1 Kansas (4) Fort Worth, TX

16   Norfolk St (65)/ UNCW (66)

8 Murray St (29)

9 Loyola-Chicago (35)

5 LSU (20)

12   San Francisco (45)/Memphis (46)

4 Wisconsin (13) Milwaukee, WI

13   South Dakota St (51)

6 Michigan St (23)

11   Davidson (44)

3 Villanova (9) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Wagner (56)

7 Iowa St (28)

10   SDSU (38)

2 Kentucky (6) Indianapolis, IN

15   LBSU (62)

Last Four In

San Francisco

Memphis

Creighton

Florida

First Four Out

North Carolina

BYU

Oregon

Belmont

Bracketology 2/18/2022

While it's true that one game doesn't mean a whole lot for the resume, a string of positive games sure does. Take Rutgers. Two weeks ago they weren't on the radar, with a nice home win over Purdue but also a Q4 home loss to Lafayette to go with two Q3 losses. Four straight wins over ranked teams later, they are now in the field with some breathing room. Ultimately, beating good teams is what the committee is looking for, and Rutgers deserves credit for being a bubble team that has taken that to heart.

 West

1 Gonzaga (1) Portland, OR

16   Colgate (64)

8 Boise St (30)

9 TCU (36)

5 Michigan St (17)

12   Iona (50)

4 UCLA (14) Portland, OR

13   New Mexico St (53)

6 USC (24)

11   Memphis (43)

3 Texas Tech (10) San Diego, CA

14   Montana St (57)

7 St Mary’s (26)

10   Indiana (38)

2 Villanova (8) Pittsburgh, PA

15   Yale (60)

Midwest

1 Auburn (2) Greenville, SC

16   Southern (67)/New Orleans (68)

8 Seton Hall (29)

9 Iowa (35)

5 Ohio St (18)

12   Davidson (46)

4 Houston (16) Buffalo, NY

13   Vermont (54)

6 LSU (22)

11   Rutgers (44)/BYU (45)

3 Providence (12) Buffalo, NY

14   Wagner (56)

7 Xavier (25)

10   Notre Dame (39)

2 Purdue (7) Indianapolis, IN

15   Cleveland St (59)

South

1 Arizona (3) San Diego, CA

16   Longwood (63)

8 Iowa St (31)

9 Loyola-Chicago (34)

5 Texas (18)

12   San Francisco (47)/Creighton (48)

4 Tennessee (13) Pittsburgh, PA

13   Chattanooga (51)

6 Connecticut (23)

11   SDSU (42)

3 Wisconsin (11) Milwaukee, WI

14   Ohio (55)

7 Arkansas (27)

10   Wake Forest (40)

2 Baylor (6) Fort Worth, TX

15   LBSU (62)

East

1 Kansas (4) Fort Worth, TX

16   Norfolk St (65)/ UNCW (66)

8 Murray St (32)

9 Wyoming (33)

5 Alabama (20)

12   North Texas (49)

4 Illinois (15) Milwaukee, WI

13   South Dakota St (52)

6 Marquette (21)

11   Michigan (41)

3 Duke (9) Greenville, SC

14   Texas St (57)

7 Colorado St (28)

10   Miami (FL) (37)

2 Kentucky (5) Indianapolis, IN

15   Jacksonville St (61)

Last Four In

Rutgers

BYU

San Francisco

Creighton

First Four Out

Oklahoma

North Carolina

Oregon

Florida

Bracketology - Valentine's Day Edition

Happy Valentine's Day/Singles Awareness Day to all! Regardless of what you're doing today, we can all agree that we love college basketball, and that's what counts in this post.

West

1 Gonzaga (1) Portland, OR

16   Norfolk St (64)

8 Boise St (32)

9 TCU (34)

5 Ohio St (17)

12   Iona (50)

4 Tennessee (16) Buffalo, NY

13   Ohio (54)

6 Connecticut (24)

11   BYU (41)

3 Texas Tech (10) San Diego, CA

14   Montana St (58)

7 USC (25)

10   Loyola-Chicago (37)

2 Duke (8) Greenville, SC

15   Yale (60)

Midwest

1 Auburn (2) Greenville, SC

16   Colgate (67)/New Orleans (68)

8 Iowa (31)

9 Murray St (35)

5 Michigan St (18)

12   North Texas (49)

4 Houston (14) Milwaukee, WI

13   South Dakota St (53)

6 Xavier (23)

11   Oklahoma (44)

3 Wisconsin (11) Milwaukee, WI

14   Liberty (57)

7 Arkansas (28)

10   Wake Forest (38)

2 Kansas (5) Fort Worth, TX

15   Longwood (62)

South

1 Arizona (3) San Diego, CA

16   LBSU (63)

8 Wyoming (30)

9 Indiana (33)

5 Texas (19)

12   SDSU (45)/Creighton (47)

4 Illinois (15) Pittsburgh, PA

13   Chattanooga (51)

6 Alabama (21)

11   North Carolina (43)

3 Providence (12) Buffalo, NY

14   Wagner (56)

7 St Mary’s (26)

10   Miami (FL) (39)

2 Baylor (6) Fort Worth, TX

15   Texas St (61)

East

1 Kentucky (4) Indianapolis, IN

16   UNCW (65)/Southern (66)

8 Iowa St (29)

9 Colorado St (36)

5 Marquette (20)

12   San Francisco (46)/Michigan (48)

4 UCLA (13) Portland, OR

13   New Mexico St (52)

6 LSU (22)

11   Davidson (42)

3 Villanova (9) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Vermont (55)

7 Seton Hall (27)

10   Notre Dame (40)

2 Purdue (7) Indianapolis, IN

15   Cleveland St (59)

Last Four In

San Diego St

San Francisco

Creighton

Michigan

First Four Out

Oregon

Florida

West Virginia

Rutgers

Bracketology 2/11/2022

 This was quite a wild week of college basketball. Six Top 10 teams fell, and several teams found themselves teetering on edge of defeat. Despite this, one game rarely makes a sizable impact on a team's seeding.

Bracketology is not a power ranking. Recent results do not carry more weight, all games are weighted equally for a team. As such, teams won't go flying up and down the list, but remain fairly steady. If a team sees a drastic jump, it means I have changed my evaluation of a team and adjusted accordingly (like Arizona).

West

1 Gonzaga (1) Portland, OR

16   Norfolk St (64)

8 Boise St (31)

9 TCU (35)

5 Michigan St (19)

12   North Texas (50)

4 UCLA (13) Portland, OR

13   New Mexico St (51)

6 LSU (22)

11   BYU (42)

3 Texas Tech (11) San Diego, CA

14   Montana St (58)

7 USC (27)

10   Davidson (40)

2 Wisconsin (8) Milwaukee, WI

15   Yale (60)

Midwest

1 Auburn (2) Greenville, SC

16   Colgate (67)/New Orleans (68)

8 Wyoming (32)

9 Indiana (33)

5 Texas (20)

12   SDSU (45)/Creighton (46)

4 Illinois (15) Milwaukee, WI

13   South Dakota St (53)

6 Alabama (21)

11   North Carolina (44)

3 Villanova (12) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Vermont (55)

7 Seton Hall (28)

10   Colorado St (38)

2 Kansas (5) Fort Worth, TX

15   LBSU (62)

South

1 Arizona (3) San Diego, CA

16   Appalachian St (63)

8 Arkansas (29)

9 Wake Forest (36)

5 Marquette (18)

12   San Francisco (47)/Oregon (48)

4 Tennessee (16) Buffalo, NY

13   Chattanooga (52)

6 Connecticut (24)

11   Notre Dame (41)

3 Houston (9) Greenville, SC

14   Liberty (57)

7 St Mary’s (25)

10   Miami (FL) (39)

2 Baylor (7) Fort Worth, TX

15   Longwood (61)

East

1 Kentucky (4) Indianapolis, IN

16   UNCW (65)/Southern (66)

8 Iowa (30)

9 Loyola-Chicago (34)

5 Ohio St (17)

12   Iona (49)

4 Providence (14) Buffalo, NY

13   Ohio (54)

6 Xavier (23)

11   Oklahoma (43)

3 Duke (10) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Wagner (56)

7 Iowa St (26)

10   Murray St (37)

2 Purdue (6) Indianapolis, IN

15   Cleveland St (59)

Last Four In

San Diego St

Creighton

San Francisco

Oregon

First Four Out

Florida

West Virginia

Michigan

UAB

Bracketology 2/7/2022

 Welcome back everyone!

Last year was the weirdest season in recent memory for college basketball. With so many cancellations, it was impossible for teams to be judged uniformly. Some teams played 30 games, others 20. This season, after an initial wave of axes in late December-early January, has been much more normal. Teams have played full schedules or are on track to play full schedules. As such, it should be a much more normal bracket.

When looking at this year's bracket, there's one thing to note. Last year, with the entire tournament in Indiana, there were no geographical concerns when it came to the bracket. Teams could be placed anywhere as long as it didn't violate bracket principles. This season, we're back to a more regionalized bracket, and the placements will reflect as such.

Thank you all for reading. For more great bracket predictions, please go to http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

West

1 Gonzaga (1) Portland, OR

16   Norfolk St (64)

8 Boise St (30)

9 Wake Forest (36)

5 Tennessee (17)

12   Iona (49)

4 Ohio St (16) Buffalo, NY

13   Vermont (54)

6 USC (23)

11   Creighton (44)

3 Texas Tech (10) San Diego, CA

14   Weber St (58)

7 St  Mary’s (27)

10   Miami (FL) (40)

2 Arizona (7) San Diego, CA

15   CSU-Fullerton (60)

Midwest

1 Auburn (2) Greenville, SC

16   Colgate (67)/New Orleans (68)

8 Iowa (29)

9 TCU (34)

5 Michigan St (19)

12   BYU (45)/UNC (46)

4 Providence (14) Buffalo, NY

13   South Dakota St (53)

6 Alabama (21)

11   Notre Dame (43)

3 Wisconsin (12) Milwaukee, WI

14   Ohio (55)

7 Seton Hall (28)

10   San Francisco (37)

2 Baylor (6) Fort Worth, TX

15   Longwood (62)

South

1 Kansas (3) Fort Worth, TX

16   Appalachian St (63)

8 Indiana (31)

9 Wyoming (35)

5 Marquette (18)

12   Oklahoma (47)/Oregon (48)

4 Illinois (15) Pittsburgh, PA

13   Chattanooga (52)

6 LSU (22)

11   San Diego St (42)

3 Houston (9) Milwaukee, WI

14   Jacksonville St (58)

7 Connecticut (25)

10   Murray St (38)

2 Duke (8) Greenville, SC

15   Yale (61)

East

1 Purdue (4) Indianapolis, IN

16   UNCW (65)/Southern (66)

8 Arkansas (32)

9 Loyola-Chicago (33)

5 Xavier (20)

12   North Texas (50)

4 UCLA (13) Portland, OR

13   New Mexico St (51)

6 Iowa St (23)

11   Davidson (41)

3 Villanova (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14   Wagner (56)

7 Texas (26)

10   Colorado St (39)

2 Kentucky (5) Indianapolis, IN

15   Cleveland St (59)

Last Four In

BYU

North Carolina

Oklahoma

Oregon

First Four Out

West Virginia

Florida

Mississippi State

VCU