Monday, March 9, 2020

Bracketology -3/9/20

Now we're down the home stretch. Conference Tournament Week promises to be an exciting, fun-filled, dramatic week. However, it is important to note that each game counts as much as every other game during the season. There is only so much a team can move up the seed list (though many could take a page from Utah State's book and punch their ticket now).

Midwest Region
1.      Kansas (1) - Omaha
16.  St. Francis (PA) (65)/ Prairie View A&M (66)
8.      Saint Mary’s (32)
9.      Florida (33)
5.      Ohio State (17)
12.  Liberty (50)
4.      Louisville (14) – Tampa
13.  Vermont (51)
6.      BYU (22)
11.  ETSU (43)
3.      Michigan State (10) – St. Louis
14.  Belmont (56)
7.      Illinois (25)
10.  Arizona State (38)
2.      Creighton (8) – St. Louis
15.  Eastern Washington (62)
South Region
1.      Baylor (2) - Omaha
16.  North Dakota State (64)
8.      Houston (29)
9.      Rutgers (36)
5.      Auburn (19)
12.  Stephen F. Austin (49)
4.      Wisconsin (16) – Sacramento
13.  North Texas (53)
6.      Penn State (23)
11.  Utah State (42)
3.      Seton Hall (11) – Albany
14.  Colgate (57)
7.      Colorado (26)
10.  Indiana (39)
2.      Florida State (7) - Tampa
15.  Little Rock (60)
West Region
1.      Gonzaga (3) - Spokane
16.  Siena (67)/North Carolina Central (68)
8.      Marquette (31)
9.      Oklahoma (35)
5.      West Virginia (20)
12.  NC State (46)/Richmond (47)
4.      Oregon (15) – Spokane
13.  New Mexico State (54)
6.      Michigan (21)
11.  Wichita State (44)/Stanford (45)
3.      Kentucky (12) – Cleveland
14.  Bradley (55)
7.      Arizona (27)
10.  Texas Tech (40)
2.      San Diego State (5) - Sacramento
15.  UC Irvine (61)
East Region
1.      Dayton (4) - Cleveland
16.  Winthrop (63)
8.      LSU (30)
9.      Providence (34)
5.      Butler (18)
12.  Yale (48)
4.      Maryland (13) - Greensboro
13.  Akron (52)
6.      Iowa (24)
11.  Xavier (41)
3.      Duke (9) - Greensboro
14.  Wright State (58)
7.      Virginia (28)
10.  USC (37)
2.      Villanova (6) - Albany
15.  Hofstra (59)

Last Four In
Wichita State
Stanford
NC State
Richmond

First Four Out
Cincinnati
Texas
UCLA
Northern Iowa

Monday, March 2, 2020

Bracketology - 3/2/20

Well, it's finally March. Thank heavens for small mercies.

This week I have to give props to two teams: Providence and UCLA. Both teams suffered through abysmal non-conference performances. Providence had three Q3 losses and a nice Q4 shiner due to Long Beach State. UCLA had a Q3 and Q4 loss each, and both programs looked lost.

And yet, Providence is fairly safe, and UCLA is right outside the field. How?

Conference play has been a revelation for both teams. Providence owns wins at Villanova, Butler, and Marquette, and home wins over Seton Hall and Creighton. UCLA has swept Arizona and Colorado, and is 1st place in the Pac-12 standings.

The committee has shown to favor teams that pick up big wins in conference play to off-set some bad non-conference losses (think Baylor last season). Even if both teams fall a bit short, both should be commended for their remarkable turnarounds.

Midwest Region
1.      Kansas (1) - Omaha
16.  St. Francis (PA) (65)/ Prairie View A&M (66)
8.      Virginia (31)
9.      Saint Mary’s (33)
5.      Ohio State (18)
12.  Cincinnati (46)/NC State (47)
4.      Kentucky (14) – Cleveland
13.  Liberty (51)
6.      BYU (24)
11.  Wichita State (42)
3.      Creighton (9) – St. Louis
14.  Wright State (58)
7.      Marquette (26)
10.  USC (40)
2.      Maryland (6) - Greensboro
15.  UC Irvine (61)
South Region
1.      Baylor (2) - Omaha
16.  Winthrop (63)
8.      Houston (30)
9.      Florida (35)
5.      Butler (19)
12.  Stephen F. Austin (50)
4.      Michigan State (16) – Sacramento
13.  Akron (53)
6.      West Virginia (23)
11.  ETSU (44)
3.      Villanova (11) - Albany
14.  Colgate (56)
7.      Illinois (28)
10.  Xavier (37)
2.      Florida State (7) - Tampa
15.  Eastern Washington (62)
West Region
1.      Gonzaga (3) - Spokane
16.  Siena (67)/North Carolina A&T (68)
8.      Texas Tech (32)
9.      Arizona State (34)
5.      Michigan (20)
12.  Northern Iowa (48)
4.      Oregon (13) – Spokane
13.  North Texas (54)
6.      Iowa (21)
11.  Stanford (43)/Rhode Island (45)
3.      Louisville (12) – St. Louis
14.  New Mexico State (55)
7.      Arizona (27)
10.  Indiana (38)
2.      Seton Hall (8) – Albany
15.  Hofstra (59)
East Region
1.      San Diego State (4) - Sacramento
16.  North Dakota State (64)
8.      LSU (29)
9.      Oklahoma (36)
5.      Auburn (17)
12.  Yale (49)
4.      Penn State (15) - Tampa
13.  Vermont (52)
6.      Wisconsin (22)
11.  Providence (41)
3.      Duke (10) - Greensboro
14.  Belmont (57)
7.      Colorado (25)
10.  Rutgers (39)
2.      Dayton (5) - Cleveland
15.  Little Rock (60)

Last Four Byes
Rutgers
USC
Providence
Wichita State

Last Four In
Stanford
Rhode Island
Cincinnati
NC State

First Four Out
Utah State
UCLA
Arkansas
Purdue

Next Four Out
Georgetown
Texas
Richmond
Mississippi State



Friday, February 28, 2020

Bracketology - 2/28/20

Recently, there was a debate on Twitter over Stephen F. Austin and whether they could get in as an at-large. While normally such mid-major cases don't go far, SFA has a road win over a small, private school in North Carolina that has the attention of many (that of course being Duke).

While it would be awesome if that were the case, the criteria that will keep SFA out if they lose in the Conference Tournament is their SOS. It currently resides in the 330s, and they do have a home loss to Texas A&M-CC that did not help.

But the question around the SFA debate is slightly different than whether their resume is good enough. It's more like "How would the average bubble team do against their schedule?" And while a good question to ask, there is not a great method to determine the case, and it's all hypothetical anyway. The key to evaluating teams for the tournament is to measure how well they've done, not how well they could do. And the way scheduling works currently, unfortunately schools like Stephen F. Austin will be left out in the cold on Selection Sunday more often than not.

Midwest Region
1.      Kansas (1) - Omaha
16.  St. Francis (PA) (65)/ Prairie View A&M (66)
8.      Houston (31)
9.      Florida (33)
5.      Michigan State (18)
12.  Liberty (49)
4.      Kentucky (15) – Tampa
13.  Akron (53)
6.      BYU (27)
11.  Wichita State (41)
3.      Creighton (9) – St. Louis
14.  Wright State (58)
7.      Arizona (26)
10.  Rutgers (37)
2.      Dayton (6) - Cleveland
15.  UC Irvine (61)
South Region
1.      Baylor (2) - Omaha
16.  South Dakota State (63)
8.      Illinois (30)
9.      Xavier (35)
5.      Butler (19)
12.  Yale (50)
4.      Auburn (16) – Sacramento
13.  Stephen F. Austin (51)
6.      Colorado (23)
11.  Rhode Island (42)
3.      Villanova (10) - Albany
14.  Belmont (57)
7.      Marquette (25)
10.  Oklahoma (38)
2.      Florida State (7) - Tampa
15.  Radford (62)
West Region
1.      Gonzaga (3) - Spokane
16.  Siena (67)/North Carolina A&T (68)
8.      Arizona State (32)
9.      Indiana (36)
5.      Michigan (20)
12.  Northern Iowa (48)
4.      Oregon (13) – Spokane
13.  North Texas (54)
6.      Iowa (22)
11.  ETSU (46)
3.      Seton Hall (11) – Albany
14.  Colgate (56)
7.      Wisconsin (24)
10.  USC (40)
2.      Duke (8) - Greensboro
15.  Hofstra (59)
East Region
1.      San Diego State (4) - Sacramento
16.  Montana (64)
8.      Texas Tech (29)
9.      Saint Mary’s (34)
5.      West Virginia (17)
12.  Providence (45)/Arkansas (47)
4.      Penn State (14) - Cleveland
13.  Vermont (52)
6.      Ohio State (21)
11.  Stanford (43)/Utah State (44)
3.      Louisville (12) – St. Louis
14.  New Mexico State (55)
7.      LSU (28)
10.  Virginia (39)
2.      Maryland (5) - Greensboro
15.  Little Rock (60)

Last Four Byes
Virginia
USC
Wichita State
Rhode Island

Last Four In
Stanford
Utah State
Providence
Arkansas

First Four Out
NC State
Georgetown
Cincinnati
Purdue

Next Four Out
Richmond
Mississippi State
Alabama
Memphis

Monday, February 24, 2020

Bracketology- 2/24/20

Well, this week was quite wild, wasn't it?

After weeks of relative stability up top, five of the top six seeds lost this last week. Some were blown out (Duke), some were stunned at home (San Diego State), others lost tough road games (Gonzaga, Maryland). It was a surprising injection of chaos.

And yet you'll see that my Top 7... is completely unchanged (save for Kansas over Baylor).

Why? The important thing to remember about bracketology is to not overreact to one game. The resume is based off of a complete season of work, and each game is weighted equally. So while there were some shockers this week, it was not enough to move any teams. But it did reduce the margin between teams, and if there is similar chaos the next couple of weeks, the top 2 lines will change drastically.

Midwest Region
1.      Kansas (1) - Omaha
16.  Prairie View A&M (65)/St. Francis (PA) (66)
8.      Houston (31)
9.      Florida (34)
5.      Michigan State (19)
12.  Liberty (49)
4.      Auburn (16) – Sacramento
13.  Stephen F. Austin (51)
6.      Michigan (22)
11.  Stanford (43)/Providence (45)
3.      Seton Hall (12) – Albany
14.  Wright State (58)
7.      LSU (27)
10.  Virginia (40)
2.      Maryland (6) - Greensboro
15.  Radford (60)
South Region
1.      Baylor (2) - Omaha
16.  South Dakota State (63)
8.      Illinois (30)
9.      Xavier (36)
5.      Butler (18)
12.  Northern Iowa (48)
4.      Penn State (15) - Tampa
13.  Akron (53)
6.      Marquette (24)
11.  Rhode Island (41)
3.      Florida State (9) - Tampa
14.  Colgate (56)
7.      Arizona (25)
10.  Wichita State (38)
2.      Dayton (7) - Cleveland
15.  Hofstra (59)
West Region
1.      Gonzaga (3) - Spokane
16.  Saint Peter’s (67)/North Carolina A&T (68)
8.      Rutgers (32)
9.      Arizona State (33)
5.      Iowa (20)
12.  Yale (50)
4.      Oregon (13) – Spokane
13.  North Texas (54)
6.      Colorado (21)
11.  ETSU (46)
3.      Louisville (11) – St. Louis
14.  New Mexico State (55)
7.      BYU (28)
10.  Indiana (37)
2.      Creighton (8) – St. Louis
15.  UC Irvine (62)
East Region
1.      San Diego State (4) - Sacramento
16.  Montana (64)
8.      Texas Tech (29)
9.      Saint Mary’s (35)
5.      Kentucky (17)
12.  Utah State (44)/Georgetown (47)
4.      West Virginia (14) – Cleveland
13.  Vermont (52)
6.      Ohio State (23)
11.  USC (42)
3.      Villanova (10) - Albany
14.  Belmont (57)
7.      Wisconsin (27)
10.  Oklahoma (39)
2.      Duke (5) - Greensboro
15.  Little Rock (61)

Last Four Byes
Oklahoma
Virginia
Rhode Island
USC

Last Four In
Stanford
Utah State
Providence
Georgetown

First Four Out
NC State
Arkansas
Cincinnati
Purdue

Next Four Out
Richmond
Mississippi State
UNC-Greensboro
Alabama

Friday, February 21, 2020

Bracketology - 2/21/20


Before I get to the Bracketology, a little blurb on a bit of bracket rules that helps explain things:

The little numbers next to the teams is their overall seed on my S-curve. This is what the committee uses to rank the teams before giving them their seeds.

If you have been paying close attention, you'll notice BYU has an overall ranking of 31 (8 seed), but is a 7 seed in the bracket. Why is that?

Well, due to religious reasons, BYU does not play basketball games on Sundays. Because of this, they have to be put in a pod and a region that are both Thursday/Saturday games. This is not conducive to any current 8 seed because three of the four 1/8/9/16 pods are Friday/Sunday, and the one Thursday/Saturday pod has conference rival Gonzaga as the 1, which breaks another rule.

In 2003, BYU was accidentally placed in a Friday/Sunday regional, causing a big uproar and the NCAA developing a contingency plan if BYU made it to the second weekend. BYU, a 12 seed, ultimately lost in the first round, avoiding a crisis, but the NCAA has to be extra careful in making sure it does not happen again.

Anyways, onto the Bracketology:


South Region
1.      Baylor (1) - Omaha
16.  Siena (65)/Prairie View A&M (66)
8.      Houston (30)
9.      Xavier (34)
5.      Butler (17)
12.  ETSU (48)
4.      Penn State (15) - Tampa
13.  Akron (53)
6.      Arizona (24)
11.  Indiana (41)
3.      Florida State (9) - Tampa
14.  Colgate (56)
7.      Michigan (25)
10.  Florida (38)
2.      Dayton (7) - Cleveland
15.  UC Irvine (61)
Midwest Region
1.      Kansas (2) - Omaha
16.  South Dakota State (63)
8.      Illinois (29)
9.      Rhode Island (35)
5.      Michigan State (19)
12.  Liberty (50)
4.      Auburn (16) – Sacramento
13.  Stephen F. Austin (51)
6.      Iowa (22)
11.  Georgetown (43)/Stanford (46)
3.      Louisville (10) – St. Louis
14.  Wright State (57)
7.      LSU (26)
10.  USC (39)
2.      Maryland (6) - Greensboro
15.  Winthrop (59)
West Region
1.      Gonzaga (3) - Spokane
16.  Robert Morris (67)/Norfolk State (68)
8.      Rutgers (32)
9.      Oklahoma (33)
5.      Kentucky (20)
12.  Yale (49)
4.      Oregon (14) – Spokane
13.  North Texas (54)
6.      Colorado (21)
11.  Purdue (42)
3.      Creighton (12) – St. Louis
14.  New Mexico State (55)
7.      BYU (31)
10.  Wichita State (40)
2.      Seton Hall (8) – Albany
15.  Austin Peay (62)
East Region
1.      San Diego State (4) - Sacramento
16.  Montana (64)
8.      Texas Tech (28)
9.      Saint Mary’s (36)
5.      Marquette (18)
12.  Virginia (44)/Utah State (47)
4.      West Virginia (13) – Cleveland
13.  Vermont (52)
6.      Ohio State (23)
11.  Northern Iowa (45)
3.      Villanova (11) - Albany
14.  Hofstra (58)
7.      Wisconsin (27)
10.  Arizona State (37)
2.      Duke (5) - Greensboro
15.  Little Rock (60)

Last Four Byes
USC
Wichita State
Indiana
Purdue

Last Four In
Georgetown
Virginia
Stanford
Utah State

First Four Out
Arkansas
Richmond
Mississippi State
NC State

Next Four Out
Cincinnati
Providence
UNC-Greensboro
Minnesota



Monday, February 17, 2020

Bracketology - 2/17

Hello to all and Happy Monday (relatively speaking). Here is today's bracketology:

South Region
1.      Baylor (1) - Omaha
16.  Rider (65)/Prairie View A&M (66)
8.      Illinois (29)
9.      Saint Mary’s (35)
5.      Marquette (18)
12.  ETSU (48)
4.      Auburn (13) – Tampa
13.  Vermont (52)
6.      Ohio State (23)
11.  Wichita State (41)
3.      Villanova (11) - Albany
14.  Colgate (55)
7.      Texas Tech (26)
10.  Xavier (37)
2.      Dayton (7) - Cleveland
15.  UC Irvine (61)
Midwest Region
1.      Kansas (2) - Omaha
16.  Murray State (63)
8.      Wisconsin (28)
9.      Rhode Island (36)
5.      Kentucky (20)
12.  Yale (49)
4.      Oregon (16) – Spokane
13.  Stephen F. Austin (51)
6.      Iowa (22)
11.  Georgetown (42)
3.      Louisville (10) – St. Louis
14.  Bowling Green (57)
7.      LSU (25)
10.  Purdue (40)
2.      Maryland (6) - Greensboro
15.  Little Rock (60)
West Region
1.      Gonzaga (3) - Spokane
16.  Robert Morris (67)/NC Central (68)
8.      Rutgers (32)
9.      Oklahoma (33)
5.      Michigan State (19)
12.  Arkansas (46)/Stanford (47)
4.      Creighton (14) – St. Louis
13.  North Texas (53)
6.      Colorado (21)
11.  Indiana (43)/Virginia (44)
3.      West Virginia (12) - Cleveland
14.  Wright State (56)
7.      BYU (31)
10.  Florida (39)
2.      Florida State (8) – Tampa
15.  Winthrop (59)
East Region
1.      San Diego State (4) - Sacramento
16.  Montana (64)
8.      Houston (30)
9.      USC (34)
5.      Butler (17)
12.  Liberty (50)
4.      Penn State (15) - Sacramento
13.  New Mexico State (54)
6.      Arizona (24)
11.  Northern Iowa (45)
3.      Seton Hall (9) - Albany
14.  Hofstra (58)
7.      Michigan (27)
10.  Arizona State (38)
2.      Duke (5) - Greensboro
15.  South Dakota State (62)

Last Four Byes
Florida
Purdue 
Wichita State 
Georgetown

Last Four In
Indiana
Virginia
Arkansas
Stanford

First Four Out
Cincinnati
Utah State
Minnesota
VCU

Next  Four Out
Mississippi State
Richmond
Alabama
NC State

Friday, February 14, 2020

Bracketology - 2/14

Happy Valentine's Day to all. What better way to celebrate than some Bracketology?

South Region
1.      Baylor (1) - Omaha
16.  Rider (65)/Prairie View A&M (66)
8.      Michigan (29)
9.      Saint Mary’s (35)
5.      Marquette (19)
12.  Virginia (46)/Minnesota (47)
4.      Auburn (13) – Tampa
13.  Vermont (52)
6.      Ohio State (24)
11.  Northern Iowa (41)
3.      Villanova (12) - Albany
14.  Colgate (55)
7.      Arizona (25)
10.  Wichita State (39)
2.      Louisville (7) – St. Louis
15.  Little Rock (59)
Midwest Region
1.      Kansas (2) - Omaha
16.  North Dakota State (63)
8.      Houston (28)
9.      Purdue (36)
5.      Kentucky (20)
12.  ETSU (48)
4.      Penn State (16) - Sacramento
13.  New Mexico State (54)
6.      Colorado (21)
11.  Arkansas (42)
3.      Seton Hall (10) - Albany
14.  Bowling Green (57)
7.      Texas Tech (26)
10.  Indiana (40)
2.      Dayton (6) - Cleveland
15.  UC Irvine (61)
West Region
1.      Gonzaga (3) - Spokane
16.  Robert Morris (67)/NC Central (68)
8.      Rutgers (32)
9.      Oklahoma (34)
5.      Oregon (17)
12.  Liberty (50)
4.      Creighton (15) – Spokane
13.  North Texas (53)
6.      LSU (23)
11.  Arizona State (43)
3.      Florida State (11) - Tampa
14.  Winthrop (58)
7.      BYU (31)
10.  Rhode Island (37)
2.      Maryland (8) - Cleveland
15.  Hofstra (60)
East Region
1.      San Diego State (4) - Sacramento
16.  Montana (64)
8.      Wisconsin (30)
9.      USC (33)
5.      Michigan State (18)
12.  Yale (49)
4.      Butler (14) – St. Louis
13.  Stephen F. Austin (51)
6.      Iowa (22)
11.  Stanford (44)/Florida (45)
3.      West Virginia (9) - Greensboro
14.  Wright State (56)
7.      Illinois (27)
10.  Xavier (38)
2.      Duke (5) - Greensboro
15.  Murray State (62)

Last 4 In
Stanford
Florida
Virginia
Minnesota

First Four Out
Georgetown
VCU
Cincinnati
Utah State

Monday, February 10, 2020

Bracketology - 2/10/20

Hey all,

Here is the first bracketology post of the season. I'll have my regions, then my overall seed list:


South Region


1 Baylor
16 Rider/Prairie View A&M 

8 Wisconsin
9 USC

5 Marquette
12 ETSU

4 Auburn
13 Liberty

6 Iowa
11 Florida/Arizona State

3 Villanova
14 Colgate

7 Illinois
10 Rhode Island

2 Louisville
15 Murray State

East Region

1 San Diego State
16 Montana

8 Rutgers
9 Oklahoma

5 Colorado
12 Yale

4 Butler
13 Vermont

6 Kentucky
11 Stanford

3 West Virginia
14 Wright State

7 Houston
10 Arkansas

2 Duke
15 North Dakota State

Midwest Region

1 Kansas
16 Little Rock

8 Michigan
9 Wichita State

5 Creighton
12 VCU/Georgetown

4 Penn State
13 New Mexico State

6 Ohio State
11 Northern Iowa

3 Seton Hall
14 Bowling Green

7 Texas Tech
10 Indiana

2 Dayton
15 UC Irvine

West Region

1 Gonzaga
16 Robert Morris/NC Central

8 BYU
9 Purdue

5 Michigan State
12 Stephen F. AUstin

4 Oregon
13 North Texas

6 Arizona
11 Xavier

3 Florida State
14 Winthrop

7 LSU
10 Saint Mary's

2 Maryland
15 Hofstra

Overall Seed List

1. Baylor
2. Kansas
3. Gonzaga
4. San Diego State
5. Duke
6. Dayton
7. Louisville
8. Maryland
9. West Virginia
10. Seton Hall
11. Florida State
12. Villanova
13. Auburn
14. Butler
15. Oregon
16. Penn State
17. Creighton
18. Michigan State
19. Marquette
20. Colorado
21. Iowa
22. Kentucky
23. Arizona
24. Ohio State
25. LSU
26. Texas Tech
27. Illinois
28. Houston
29. Michigan
30. Wisconsin
31. BYU
32. Rutgers
33. USC
34. Purdue
35. Oklahoma
36. Wichita State
37. Indiana
38. Saint Mary’s
39. Arkansas
40. Rhode Island
41. Stanford
42. Xavier
43. Florida
44. Northern Iowa
45. VCU
46. Arizona State
47. Georgetown
48. ETSU
49. Yale
50. Stephen F. Austin
51. Vermont
52. Liberty
53. New Mexico State
54. North Texas
55. Wright State
56. Winthrop
57. Colgate
58. Bowling Green
59. Murray State
60. Hofstra
61. UC Irvine
62. North Dakota State
63. Little Rock
64. Montana
65. Rider
66. Prairie View A&M
67. Robert Morris
68. North Carolina Central

Friday, February 7, 2020

Ribbon-Cutting Post

To all who have clicked on this link (intentionally or by accident), welcome! 

This blog will feature a variety of content, but its primary purpose is to showcase my bracketology. I have been posting bracketologies on social media for the last couple of years, and last year did well enough that I would have finished in a tie for 3rd in the Bracket Matrix. This is a continuation of a project that I enjoy immensely, as well as a chance to officially compete against my fellow rabid college basketball fans.

Up until the last week of the season, I will post twice a week, on Monday and on Friday. During the last week of the season, I will be posting daily to account for the conference tournaments that will be ongoing. This allows me to look at slates of games instead of trying to keep track of nightly results.

I'm very excited to be able to share this content with all of you. In a season this unpredictable, it's going to be a crazy, fun ride to the NCAA tournament, and I will do my best to see what it looks like when all said and done.

T-minus 37 days until Selection Sunday!