Bracketology - 2/27/24

As the calendar comes closer to March, opportunities arise for teams to solidify their spots on the bracket. Not all opportunities are created equal, and some teams have been able to improve their standing dramatically.

Wake Forest always had great metrics, but lacked that top notch win that would be the lynchpin of the resume. After Saturday's win over Duke, Wake now is on the right side of the cutline with a little room to spare. On the flip side, New Mexico took a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad loss to Air Force on Saturday, taking what was a solid resume into bubble territory.

There is ample ball to be played, and the best time of the year is upon us shortly.

As always, there are more great brackets at https://www.bracketmatrix.com.

Midwest

1        Purdue (1) Indianapolis, IN

16    Grambling (67)/Norfolk St(68)

8        Oklahoma (30)

9        Mississippi St (35)

5        Clemson (20)

12    South Florida (49)

4        San Diego St (14) Spokane, WA

13    Akron (54)

6        Utah St (24)

11    Seton Hall (44)/Texas A&M (45)

3        Iowa St (9) Omaha, NE

14    High Point (58)

7        Washington St (26)

10    Wake Forest (39)

2        Tennessee (6) Charlotte, NC

15    Morehead St (60)

East

1        Connecticut (2) Brooklyn, NY

16    Quinnipiac (63)

8        Michigan St (32)

9        Texas (36)

5        Dayton (19)

12    Princeton (48)

4        Auburn (15) Brooklyn, NY

13    Samford (52)

6        St Mary’s (23)

11    Indiana St (46)

3        Baylor (12) Salt Lake City, UT

14    Charleston (57)

7        Florida (27)

10    Northwestern (38)

2        North Carolina (5) Charlotte, NC

15    Colgate (62)

South

1        Houston (3) Memphis, TN

16    South Dakota St (64)

8        Florida Atlantic (31)

9        Nebraska (34)

5        BYU (18)

12    Grand Canyon (50)

4        Illinois (16) Spokane, WA

13    UC Irvine (53)

6        Texas Tech (22)

11    Gonzaga (42)/Providence (43)

3        Alabama (10) Memphis, TN

14    Louisiana Tech (55)

7        South Carolina (28)

10    Nevada (37)

2        Marquette (7) Indianapolis, IN

15    Oakland (59)

West

1        Arizona (4) Salt Lake City, UT

16    Merrimack (65)/Eastern Kentucky (66)

8        TCU (29)

9        Boise St (33)

5        Wisconsin (17)

12    McNeese St (47)

4        Creighton (13) Pittsburgh, PA

13    Appalachian St (51)

6        Kentucky (21)

11    New Mexico (41)

3        Duke (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14    Vermont (56)

7        Colorado St (25)

10    Virginia (40)

2        Kansas (8) Omaha, NE

15    Eastern Washington (61)

Last Four In

Gonzaga

Providence

Seton Hall

Texas A&M

First Four Out

Villanova

Butler

Ole Miss

Colorado

Bracketology - 2/24/2024

Often times at this point in the season, the 7-10 lines are very fluid. Within that are ample opportunities for a team to fly up or crash down the seed list. Take Washington State for example. In mid-January, they were 13-6 with metrics in the 60s and one solid win at home against Arizona. One eight-game winning streak later, they are in first place in the Pac-12 and own a stunning sweep of the Wildcats, meaning they're a near lock for March. On the flip side, Utah in that same time period has dropped 5 of 7, including their own near (triple OT) miss against Arizona, and have fallen off the page entirely.

Obviously, the season is far from over, and there will be massive changes these next couple of weeks. But the data is growing larger, the opportunities fewer, and the bubble smaller.

Midwest

1        Purdue (1) Indianapolis, IN

16    Merrimack (65)/Southern (66)

8        TCU (31)

9        Boise St (35)

5        Clemson (20)

12    Grand Canyon (47)

4        San Diego St (15) Spokane, WA

13    Akron (54)

6        Colorado St (23)

11    Gonzaga (41)

3        Baylor (10) Omaha, NE

14    Oakland (58)

7        Washington St (26)

10    Virginia (38)

2        Tennessee (6) Charlotte, NC

15    High Point (60)

East

1        Connecticut (2) Brooklyn, NY

16    Quinnipiac (63)

8        Michigan St (29)

9        Texas (33)

5        Dayton (19)

12    South Florida (49)

4        Auburn (14) Brooklyn, NY

13    Samford (51)

6        Utah St (24)

11    Butler (42)/Texas A&M (43)

3        Iowa St (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14    Charleston (57)

7        Florida (28)

10    Northwestern (40)

2        North Carolina (5) Charlotte, NC

15    Colgate (62)

South

1        Houston (3) Memphis, TN

16    South Dakota St (64)

8        Florida Atlantic (30)

9        Nebraska (36)

5        BYU (18)

12    Appalachian St (50)

4        Illinois (16) Spokane, WA

13    UC Irvine (53)

6        Texas Tech (21)

11    Wake Forest (44)/Providence (45)

3        Alabama (9) Memphis, TN

14    Louisiana Tech (55)

7        South Carolina (27)

10    Nevada (39)

2        Marquette (7) Indianapolis, IN

15    Morehead St (59)

West

1        Arizona (4) Salt Lake City, UT

16    Eastern Kentucky (67)/Norfolk St(68)

8        Oklahoma (32)

9        New Mexico (34)

5        Wisconsin (17)

12    McNeese St (48)

4        Creighton (13) Salt Lake City, UT

13    Yale (52)

6        Kentucky (22)

11    Indiana St (46)

3        Duke (12) Pittsburgh, PA

14    Vermont (56)

7        St Mary’s (25)

10    Mississippi St (37)

2        Kansas (8) Omaha, NE

15    Eastern Washington (61)

Last Four In

Butler

Texas A&M

Wake Forest

Providence

First Four Out

Villanova

Seton Hall

Ole Miss

Utah

Bracketology - 2/19/24

On Saturday, the NCAA Tournament Committee released their Top 16 seeds with four weeks out until the Selection Sunday. While things can radically change, the preview did give us the following nuggets:

- Non-Con SOS remains a top criteria. This particularly showed with the seedings in the Big 12. The Big 12 as a whole conference has fantastic metrics, but many members of the conference have NC SOSes in the 300s. This particularly showed in Iowa State's seeding, as the Cyclones entered Saturday as a consensus 2 seed, but were the 11th overall seed per the committee. While the Big 12 will still get a high number of bids, for many of their teams their NC SOS will cap their ceiling, even with impressive metrics.

- The ACC has more respect with the committee than the general public. There has been a overarching theme that a(nother) down ACC would deflate the seeds of their teams, particuarly their potential top seeds (UNC and Duke). However, with the reveal, we learned that UNC is the top 2 seed, and Duke is on the 3 line currently. This shows that there is still respect for the top of the ACC, and an encouraging sign for teams like Clemson and Virginia that they'll solidly be in the field even with warts on their resume.

- Metrics are nice, but wins shine through. Teams like Alabama and Auburn have tremendous metrics, but they combine for only five Q1 wins. While Alabama's top notch metrics and strong SOS keep their resume strong, the lack of top notch Ws for those teams have so far capped their seeding potential. On the flip side, Kansas has weaker metrics, but their top-tier wins (Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee (N), Baylor) have solidified their 2 seed for now.

As said though, things will change. It's just a matter of who, and when. But we are officially less than a month from selection sunday, and for that we are all grateful.

Midwest

1        Purdue (1) Indianapolis, IN

16    Merrimack (65)/Southern (66)

8        TCU (31)

9        Washington St (34)

5        Creighton (17)

12    Grand Canyon (48)

4        San Diego St (14) Salt Lake City, UT

13    Yale (52)

6        Colorado St (23)

11    Mississippi St (42)

3        Baylor (10) Omaha, NE

14    Morehead St (58)

7        Oklahoma (27)

10    Northwestern (40)

2        Tennessee (6) Charlotte, NC

15    High Point (59)

East

1        Connecticut (2) Brooklyn, NY

16    Oakland (63)

8        Texas (30)

9        Virginia (35)

5        Clemson (19)

12    Appalachian St (50)

4        Wisconsin (16) Spokane, WA

13    UC Irvine (53)

6        South Carolina (24)

11    Nevada (41)

3        Iowa St (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14    Vermont (57)

7        Florida Atlantic (28)

10    Butler (37)

2        North Carolina (5) Charlotte, NC

15    Quinnipiac (62)

South

1        Houston (3) Memphis, TN

16    South Dakota St (64)

8        Michigan St (29)

9        Texas A&M (36)

5        BYU (20)

12    McNeese St (49)

4        Illinois (15) Spokane, WA

13    Akron (54)

6        Texas Tech (21)

11    Ole Miss (44)/Gonzaga (45)

3        Alabama (9) Memphis, TN

14    Louisiana Tech (56)

7        St Mary’s (26)

10    Boise St (38)

2        Marquette (7) Indianapolis, IN

15    Colgate (61)

West

1        Arizona (4) Salt Lake City, UT

16    Eastern Kentucky (67)/Norfolk St(68)

8        Florida (32)

9        New Mexico (33)

5        Dayton (18)

12    Utah (46)/Providence (47)

4        Auburn (13) Brooklyn, NY

13    Samford (51)

6        Kentucky (22)

11    Indiana St (43)

3        Duke (12) Pittsburgh, PA

14    UNC-Wilmington (55)

7        Utah St (25)

10    Nebraska (39)

2        Kansas (8) Omaha, NE

15    Eastern Washington (60)

Last Four In

Ole Miss

Gonzaga

Utah

Providence

First Four Out

Wake Forest

Cincinnati

Villanova

Seton Hall

Bracketology - 2/16/24

 No time for blurb. Enjoy brackets.

Midwest

1        Purdue (1) Indianapolis, IN

16    Merrimack (65)/Southern (66)

8        TCU (31)

9        Texas A&M (33)

5        Creighton (18)

12    McNeese St (49)

4        San Diego St (16) Spokane, WA

13    UC Irvine (53)

6        Colorado St (24)

11    Ole Miss (44)/Gonzaga (45)

3        Kansas (9) Omaha, NE

14    Louisiana Tech (56)

7        Texas Tech (26)

10    Boise St (38)

2        Marquette (6) Indianapolis, IN

15    Eastern Washington (60)

East

1        Connecticut (2) Brooklyn, NY

16    South Dakota St (64)

8        Texas (30)

9        Virginia (36)

5        BYU (19)

12    Grand Canyon (48)

4        Duke (14) Brooklyn, NY

13    Yale (52)

6        South Carolina (21)

11    Nevada (42)

3        Baylor (12) Salt Lake City, UT

14    Morehead St (58)

7        St Mary’s (28)

10    Butler (37)

2        Tennessee (5) Charlotte, NC

15    Quinnipiac (62)

South

1        Houston (3) Memphis, TN

16    Oakland (63)

8        Michigan St (29)

9        Washington St (35)

5        Dayton (17)

12    Utah (46)/Providence (47)

4        Illinois (13) Pittsburgh, PA

13    Samford (51)

6        Oklahoma (23)

11    Indiana St (41)

3        Alabama (10) Memphis, TN

14    UNC-Wilmington (55)

7        Kentucky (27)

10    Northwestern (40)

2        North Carolina (7) Charlotte, NC

15    High Point (59)

West

1        Arizona (4) Salt Lake City, UT

16    Eastern Kentucky (67)/Norfolk St(68)

8        Florida (32)

9        New Mexico (34)

5        Clemson (20)

12    Appalachian St (50)

4        Wisconsin (15) Spokane, WA

13    Akron (54)

6        Florida Atlantic (22)

11    Mississippi St (43)

3        Auburn (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14    Vermont (57)

7        Utah St (25)

10    Nebraska (39)

2        Iowa St (8) Omaha, NE

15    Colgate (61)

Bracketology - 2/12/2024

 We are back. The brackets are back, and they are more beautiful than ever.

The Top 3 is well set in stone (Purdue, Connecticut, Houston), but after that there is tremendous fluidity. No one wants to hold on to the fourth 1 seed, and the 3-4 seed lines are filled with incredible wins and mind-boggling losses. And if you want clean, the bubble is precisely the wrong spot to look.

But we still have five weeks of basketball to go, and we will find out soon enough what teams will nail down their spots and which ones will procrastinate. Most teams are close to equal, so this should be fun.

Midwest

1        Purdue (1) Indianapolis, IN

16    Norfolk St (67)/Central Connecticut (68)

8        Texas (31)

9        Virginia (36)

5        BYU (17)

12    Grand Canyon (48)

4        Dayton (16) Spokane, WA

13    UC Irvine (53)

6        Clemson (21)

11    Northwestern (43)

3        Alabama (9) Memphis, TN

14    Louisiana Tech (56)

7        St Mary’s (27)

10    Nebraska (39)

2        Kansas (7) Omaha, NE

15    Eastern Washington (60)

East

1        Connecticut (2) Brooklyn, NY

16    South Dakota St (64)

8        TCU (32)

9        Florida (34)

5        San Diego St (18)

12    Mississippi St (45)/Cincinnati (47)

4        Duke (15) Spokane, WA

13    Akron (54)

6        Florida Atlantic (23)

11    Ole Miss (42)

3        Baylor (12) Salt Lake City, UT

14    Morehead St (58)

7        Michigan St (28)

10    Washington St (40)

2        Tennessee (5) Charlotte, NC

15    Quinnipiac (62)

South

1        Houston (3) Memphis, TN

16    Green Bay (63)

8        Boise St (30)

9        Texas A&M (33)

5        Creighton (19)

12    McNeese St (49)

4        Illinois (13) Pittsburgh, PA

13    Appalachian St (51)

6        Oklahoma (22)

11    Nevada (44)/Gonzaga (46)

3        Auburn (11) Pittsburgh, PA

14    UNC-Wilmington (55)

7        Kentucky (27)

10    Butler (38)

2        North Carolina (6) Charlotte, NC

15    High Point (59)

West

1        Arizona (4) Salt Lake City, UT

16    Southern (65)/Eastern Kentucky (66)

8        Texas Tech (29)

9        New Mexico (35)

5        South Carolina (20)

12    Princeton (50)

4        Wisconsin (14) Brooklyn, NY

13    Samford (52)

6        Colorado St (24)

11    Utah (41)

3        Iowa St (10) Omaha, NE

14    Vermont (57)

7        Utah St (25)

10    Indiana St (37)

2        Marquette (8) Indianapolis, IN

15    Colgate (61)

Last Four In

Nevada

Mississippi St

Gonzaga

Cincinnati

First Four Out

Colorado

Wake Forest

Memphis

St John's