Monday, February 27, 2023

Bracketology - 2/27/23

Eventually, losses do matter.

I'm not referring to bad losses, per say. Those losses have always mattered. I'm referring more to the quantity of losses a team has.

When evaluating a team's resume, it's easy get to get caught up in the metrics, quality wins, the criteria that matters to the committee. But eventually, the amount of red on a team's sheet does start to accumulate.

Take the cases of Oklahoma State and West Virginia. Both teams have won road games against tourney competition, have good metrics, and most everything you look for in a resume. However, one set of numbers is beginning to stand out: 16-13. That's the record of both teams currently.

The number of losses has slowly crept up for the average tournament team. A team with 15 losses first made it in 2017, and ever since a team with that many has made every (non-COVID impacted) tournament. However, every team that has done so has done it after making some noise in their conference tournament. The math does not look great for either team, and it's likely one (or both) will get squeezed out for losing too many games. Because, eventually, losses do matter.

As always, please check out http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ for more.

South

1 Alabama (1) Birmingham, AL

16    Howard (67)/Fairleigh Dickinson (68)

8 Providence (30)

9 NC State (35)

5 Xavier (17)

12    Kent St (50)

4 Indiana (13) Albany, NY

13    Bradley (52)

6 Creighton (21)

11    West Virginia (45)/Wisconsin (46)

3 Gonzaga (11) Des Moines, IA

14    UC-Irvine (57)

7 Maryland (25)

10    Auburn (39)

2 Baylor (7) Denver, CO

15    Colgate (59)

Midwest

1 Kansas (2) Des Moines, IA

16    UNC-Asheville (64)

8 Missouri (32)

9 Rutgers (33)

5 Miami (FL) (20)

12    Liberty (49)

4 UConn (14) Albany, NY

13    VCU (51)

6 TCU (22)

11    Memphis (42)

3 Tennessee (9) Greensboro, NC

14    Eastern Washington (58)

7 Arkansas (27)

10    Boise St (40)

2 Arizona (8) Sacramento, CA

15    Vermont (61)

West

1 Houston (3) Birmingham, AL

16    Texas A&M – CC (63)

8 Texas A&M (31)

9 Iowa (34)

5 San Diego St (19)

12    Oral Roberts (47)

4 Iowa St (15) Orlando, FL

13    Utah Valley (54)

6 Illinois (24)

11    USC (41)

3 Kansas St (10) Columbus, OH

14    Yale (55)

7 Kentucky (28)

10    Nevada (38)

2 UCLA (6) Sacramento, CA

15    Youngstown St (62)

East

1 Purdue (4) Columbus, OH

16    Morehead St (65)/Alcorn St (66)

8 Duke (29)

9 Florida Atlantic (36)

5 Virginia (18)

12    Charleston (48)

4 St Mary’s (16) Orlando, FL

13    Southern Miss (53)

6 Northwestern (23)

11    Mississippi St (43)/Oklahoma St (44)

3 Marquette (12) Greensboro, NC

14    Iona (56)

7 Michigan St (26)

10    Pittsburgh (37)

2 Texas (5) Denver, CO

15    Samford (60)

Last Four In
Mississippi St
Oklahoma St
West Virginia
Wisconsin

First Four Out
Arizona St
Michigan
North Carolina
Utah St

Friday, February 24, 2023

Bracketology - 2/24/23

 Some teams are obvious, and some teams sneak up on you. Texas A&M is definitively the latter.

After coming close to making the field last season, it appeared that Texas A&M would not do so this season, having a dreadful non-conference that included losses to Wofford and Murray State (both Q4). It appeared to be another season of mediocrity for Buzz Williams' crew.

But they have had the most amazing turnaround. They have dominated SEC play, going 13-2 to start and being a Top 10 team since conference play has begun. While there is some scheduling luck (Bama and Tennessee only once, and both at home), A&M has done what many bubble teams fail to do, and that is to win. As a result, a team not sniffing the field even a couple of weeks ago is now a rapidly rising 8 seed.

We will see which teams take that continued ascent, and which ones fall short. But it will be a very entertaining race to the finish. And as always, check out http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ for others.

South

1 Alabama (1) Birmingham, AL

16    Howard (67)/Fairleigh Dickinson (68)

8 NC State (32)

9 Rutgers (33)

5 Xavier (19)

12    Kent St (50)

4 Indiana (14) Albany, NY

13    VCU (51)

6 TCU (21)

11    Memphis (42)

3 Marquette (11) Columbus, OH

14    Yale (55)

7 Maryland (25)

10    Florida Atlantic (38)

2 Baylor (7) Denver, CO

15    Colgate (59)

Midwest

1 Houston (2) Birmingham, AL

16    UNC-Asheville (64)

8 Missouri (31)

9 Pittsburgh (36)

5 St Mary’s (17)

12    Charleston (48)

4 Iowa St (15) Orlando, FL

13    Drake (53)

6 Illinois (24)

11    West Virginia (43)/USC (45)

3 Tennessee (9) Greensboro, NC

14    Eastern Washington (58)

7 Michigan St (26)

10    Auburn (37)

2 Texas (5) Denver, CO

15    Samford (60)

East

1 Purdue (3) Columbus, OH

16    Morehead St (65)/Alcorn St (66)

8 Duke (29)

9 Kentucky (34)

5 Creighton (20)

12    Liberty (49)

4 Virginia (13) Albany, NY

13    Utah Valley (54)

6 San Diego St (22)

11    Wisconsin (44)/Mississippi St (46)

3 Kansas St (10) Des Moines, IA

14    UC-Irvine (57)

7 Providence (27)

10    Boise St (40)

2 UCLA (8) Sacramento, CA

15    Vermont (61)

West

1 Kansas (4) Des Moines, IA

16    Texas A&M – CC (63)

8 Texas A&M (30)

9 Iowa (35)

5 Miami (FL) (18)

12    Oral Roberts (47)

4 UConn (16) Orlando, FL

13    Southern Miss (52)

6 Northwestern (23)

11    Oklahoma St (41)

3 Gonzaga (12) Greensboro, NC

14    Iona (56)

7 Arkansas (28)

10    Nevada (39)

2 Arizona (6) Sacramento, CA

15    Youngstown St (62)

Last Four In
West Virginia
Wisconsin
USC
Mississippi St

First Four Out
New Mexico
Penn State
North Carolina
Texas Tech

Monday, February 20, 2023

Bracketology - 2/20/23

So, the Top 16 reveal was Saturday. The first look into how the committee will seed the teams this season. The results were... cloudy.

The things that were prioritized the last several seasons - Q1 wins, strong metrics, strong SOS - are still the highest valued, but the order in which they are seem to be a case to case basis. One such example is Arizona vs UCLA. UCLA has the better metrics by far, but Arizona has the better wins, especially away from home. Arizona was seeded higher in the reveal as a result. 

Now, will things change these next three weeks? Naturally, but the small reveal on Saturday gives us even a tiny insight into what we can expect on March 12.

As always, for more bracketology go to http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

 South

1 Alabama (1) Birmingham, AL

16    Howard (67)/Fairleigh Dickinson (68)

8 Rutgers (30)

9 Florida Atlantic (36)

5 UConn (17)

12    Kent St (50)

4 Indiana (13) Albany, NY

13    Utah Valley (53)

6 Northwestern (24)

11    West Virginia (43)/USC (46)

3 Virginia (10) Greensboro, NC

14    Iona (56)

7 Maryland (25)

10    Boise St (39)

2 Baylor (7) Denver, CO

15    Colgate (59)

Midwest

1 Houston (2) Birmingham, AL

16    UNC-Asheville (64)

8 Auburn (31)

9 NC State (33)

5 Miami (FL) (19)

12    Charleston (48)

4 Xavier (16) Orlando, FL

13    Drake (53)

6 TCU (21)

11    Memphis (42)

3 Tennessee (9) Greensboro, NC

14    Eastern Washington (58)

7 Michigan St (26)

10    Texas A&M (40)

2 Texas (5) Denver, CO

15    Youngstown St (60)

East

1 Purdue (3) Columbus, OH

16    Morehead St (65)/Alcorn St (66)

8 Duke (29)

9 Arkansas (34)

5 St Mary’s (18)

12    Liberty (49)

4 Marquette (14) Albany, NY

13    VCU (51)

6 San Diego St (22)

11    Mississippi St (44)/Wisconsin (45)

3 Kansas St (11) Des Moines, IA

14    UCSB (57)

7 Providence (27)

10    Oklahoma St (37)

2 UCLA (8) Sacramento, CA

15    Vermont (61)

West

1 Kansas (4) Des Moines, IA

16    Texas A&M – CC (63)

8 Missouri (32)

9 Pittsburgh (35)

5 Creighton (20)

12    Oral Roberts (47)

4 Gonzaga (15) Orlando, FL

13    Southern Miss (52)

6 Illinois (23)

11    Kentucky (41)

3 Iowa St (12) Columbus, OH

14    Yale (55)

7 Iowa (28)

10    Nevada (38)

2 Arizona (6) Sacramento, CA

15    Samford (62)


Last Four In
West Virginia
Mississippi St
Wisconsin
USC

First Four Out
North Carolina
Utah St
New Mexico
Texas Tech

Friday, February 17, 2023

Bracketology - 2/17/23

Ah, today there is time for a blurb.

On Saturday, we will find out the current Top 16 teams as things stand today. Though a small nugget of information, it will be crucial to get this insight into what the committee values this season. As committee membership changes every season, different things are prioritized. Some years the committee loves metrics, other years top heavy wins carry more weight, etc. The only constants are that the committee loves strong road performances and hates weak non-cons. It will be very useful going forward.

As always, check out http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ for other great brackets.

 South

1 Alabama (1) Birmingham, AL

16    Howard (67)/Fairleigh Dickinson (68)

8 Providence (30)

9 West Virginia (36)

5 Indiana (17)

12    Charleston (48)

4 Xavier (16) Orlando, FL

13    VCU (52)

6 Creighton (21)

11    Mississippi St (45)/Wisconsin (46)

3 Virginia (10) Greensboro, NC

14    Iona (56)

7 Iowa (25)

10    Boise St (40)

2 Baylor (7) Denver, CO

15    Colgate (60)

Midwest

1 Houston (2) Birmingham, AL

16    UNC-Asheville (64)

8 Missouri (32)

9 Pittsburgh (34)

5 TCU (20)

12    Oral Roberts (47)

4 Kansas St (15) Orlando, FL

13    Drake (54)

6 Illinois (22)

11    Texas A&M (41)

3 UConn (11) Albany, NY

14    Yale (55)

7 Northwestern (26)

10    Florida Atlantic (37)

2 Texas (5) Denver, CO

15    Youngstown St (61)

East

1 Purdue (3) Columbus, OH

16    Morehead St (65)/Alcorn St (66)

8 Duke (29)

9 Arkansas (35)

5 St Mary’s (18)

12    Liberty (49)

4 Iowa St (14) Albany, NY

13    Kent St (51)

6 Maryland (24)

11    Memphis (42)

3 Tennessee (9) Greensboro, NC

14    Furman (57)

7 Michigan St (27)

10    Nevada (39)

2 Arizona (8) Sacramento, CA

15    Eastern Washington (59)

West

1 Kansas (4) Des Moines, IA

16    Northwestern St (63)

8 Auburn (31)

9 NC State (33)

5 Miami (FL) (19)

12    Southern Miss (50)

4 Gonzaga (13) Denver, CO

13    Utah Valley (53)

6 San Diego St (23)

11    North Carolina (43)/Kentucky (44)

3 Marquette (12) Des Moines, IA

14    UCSB (58)

7 Rutgers (28)

10    Oklahoma St (38)

2 UCLA (6) Sacramento, CA

15    Vermont (62)


Last Four In
North Carolina
Kentucky
Mississippi St
Wisconsin

First Four Out
USC
Clemson
New Mexico
Utah St

Monday, February 13, 2023

Bracketology - 2/13/2023

 No time for blurb. Enjoy bracketology:


South

1 Alabama (1) Columbus, OH

16    Howard (67)/Fairleigh Dickinson (68)

8 NC State (32)

9 Northwestern (36)

5 Miami (FL) (20)

12    Charleston (48)

4 Marquette (15) Orlando, FL

13    Drake (54)

6 Creighton (22)

11    Memphis (43)/Texas A&M (45)

3 Virginia (10) Greensboro, NC

14    Furman (55)

7 Duke (25)

10    Boise St (40)

2 Baylor (8) Des Moines, IA

15    Colgate (59)

Midwest

1 Purdue (2) Birmingham, AL

16    Morehead St (65)/Alcorn St (66)

8 Auburn (31)

9 Florida Atlantic (35)

5 TCU (18)

12    Oral Roberts (47)

4 Gonzaga (16) Sacramento, CA

13    Utah Valley (53)

6 Illinois (21)

11    New Mexico (42)

3 Xavier (12) Columbus, OH

14    Iona (56)

7 Iowa (27)

10    Pittsburgh (38)

2 Texas (5) Denver, CO

15    Youngstown St (60)

West

1 Houston (3) Birmingham, AL

16    UNC-Asheville (64)

8 Maryland (30)

9 West Virginia (33)

5 St Mary’s (19)

12    Liberty (49)

4 Iowa St (13) Albany, NY

13    VCU (52)

6 San Diego St (23)

11    USC (44)/Mississippi St (46)

3 Kansas St (11) Orlando, FL

14    Princeton (58)

7 Providence (28)

10    Nevada (39)

2 UCLA (6) Sacramento, CA

15    Eastern Washington (61)

East

1 Kansas (4) Des Moines, IA

16    Northwestern St (63)

8 Michigan St (29)

9 Arkansas (34)

5 Indiana (17)

12    Southern Miss (50)

4 UConn (14) Albany, NY

13    Kent St (51)

6 Rutgers (24)

11    North Carolina (41)

3 Tennessee (9) Greensboro, NC

14    UCSB (57)

7 Missouri (26)

10    Oklahoma St (37)

2 Arizona (7) Denver, CO

15    Vermont (62)

Last Four In
Memphis
USC
Texas A&M
Mississippi St

First Four Out
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Clemson
Oregon

Friday, February 10, 2023

Bracketology - 2/10/2023

 Not a ton of time today to do a comprehensive post, but I did want to say that it's rare for one game to have a significant impact on a team's seed. It's tempting to react strongly to the previous game, but the seed list is built with resumes. So if a team shifts drastically, it's because I re-evaluated them, not for one game.

For more excellent bracketology, please check out http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

South

1 Purdue (1) Columbus, OH

16    UNC-Asheville (64)

8 NC State (32)

9 Arkansas (34)

5 TCU (17)

12    Charleston (48)

4 UConn (15) Orlando, FL

13    Drake (54)

6 Creighton (24)

11    Northwestern (43)/Memphis (44)

3 Baylor (9) Denver, CO

14    Princeton (58)

7 Iowa (27)

10    Oklahoma St (37)

2 UCLA (8) Sacramento, CA

15    Eastern Washington (61)

Midwest

1 Alabama (2) Birmingham, AL

16    Alcorn St (66)/Fairleigh Dickinson (68)

8 Maryland (31)

9 Florida Atlantic (35)

5 Miami (FL) (20)

12    VCU (49)

4 Gonzaga (16) Orlando, FL

13    Southern Miss (52)

6 Rutgers (21)

11    North Carolina (41)

3 Xavier (12) Columbus, OH

14    Iona (56)

7 Providence (26)

10    USC (39)

2 Texas (6) Des Moines, IA

15    Youngstown St (60)

West

1 Houston (3) Birmingham, AL

16    UMES (65)/Morehead St (67)

8 Auburn (29)

9 New Mexico (36)

5 St Mary’s (18)

12    Oral Roberts (47)

4 Iowa St (14) Albany, NY

13    Kent St (51)

6 San Diego St (22)

11    Kentucky (45)/Wisconsin (46)

3 Kansas St (11) Denver, CO

14    UCSB (57)

7 West Virginia (28)

10    Boise St (38)

2 Arizona (5) Sacramento, CA

15    Vermont (62)

East

1 Kansas (4) Des Moines, IA

16    Northwestern St (63)

8 Missouri (30)

9 Michigan St (33)

5 Indiana (19)

12    Liberty (50)

4 Marquette (13) Albany, NY

13    Utah Valley (53)

6 Illinois (23)

11    Pittsburgh (42)

3 Virginia (10) Greensboro, NC

14    Furman (55)

7 Duke (25)

10    Nevada (40)

2 Tennessee (7) Greensboro, NC

15    Colgate (59)


Last Four In
Northwestern
Memphis
Kentucky
Wisconsin

First Four Out
Clemson
Texas A&M
Oregon
Mississippi St

Monday, February 6, 2023

Bracketology 2/6/2023 - welcome to 2023!

Welcome to the first edition of 2023 bracketology!

This season has already shown to be a tremendously unpredictable one. The combination of the transfer portal with the extra season of COVID eligibility has left us with a group of teams that are not dominant, but are very capable. Predicting how things will end up is a fool's errand, but, that is why I'm here anyway.

These teams will look quite differently on Selection Sunday, but this will provide a good idea of where teams are with five weeks ago. Which teams have done well, which ones have work to do, and which ones need a salvage, ASAP.

 South

1 Purdue (1) Columbus, OH

16    UNC-Asheville (64)

8 NC State (32)

9 Arkansas (35)

5 TCU (17)

12    Charleston (48)

4 Xavier (16) Orlando, FL

13    Southern Miss (53)

6 Duke (22)

11    Northwestern (43)/Nevada (45)

3 Baylor (9) Denver, CO

14    Princeton (58)

7 Auburn (27)

10    Boise St (39)

2 UCLA (8) Sacramento, CA

15    Eastern Washington (61)

Midwest

1 Alabama (2) Birmingham, AL

16    Alcorn St (66)/Fairleigh Dickinson (68)

8 West Virginia (30)

9 Michigan St (33)

5 Rutgers (19)

12    VCU (49)

4 Gonzaga (14) Albany, NY

13    Utah Valley (52)

6 Miami (FL) (21)

11    Memphis (42)

3 Marquette (11) Columbus, OH

14    Iona (56)

7 Creighton (26)

10    USC (37)

2 Texas (6) Des Moines, IA

15    Youngstown St (60)

West

1 Houston (3) Birmingham, AL

16    UMES (65)/Morehead St (67)

8 Missouri (29)

9 Florida Atlantic (34)

5 Indiana (20)

12    Oral Roberts (47)

4 Kansas St (13) Orlando, FL

13    Drake (54)

6 San Diego St (24)

11    Kentucky (44)/Clemson (46)

3 Iowa St (12) Denver, CO

14    UCSB (57)

7 Iowa (28)

10    New Mexico (38)

2 Arizona (7) Sacramento, CA

15    Vermont (62)

East

1 Kansas (4) Des Moines, IA

16    Northwestern St (63)

8 Maryland (31)

9 North Carolina (36)

5 St Mary’s (18)

12    Liberty (50)

4 UConn (15) Albany, NY

13    Kent St (51)

6 Illinois (23)

11    Pittsburgh (41)

3 Virginia (10) Greensboro, NC

14    Furman (55)

7 Providence (25)

10    Oklahoma St (40)

2 Tennessee (5) Greensboro, NC

15    Colgate (59)


Last Four In
Northwestern
Kentucky
Nevada
Clemson

First Four Out
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Penn St