Friday, February 28, 2025

Bracketology - 2/28/2025

We have one day to go before the beginning of March. Amid all the excitement, teams are nailing down their tournament resumes, and several teams are trying to solidify weak resumes at the right time.

As teams play their final games, it's important to note that all games are created equal. The games in March are worth the same amount as the games in November, and it's impossible to expunge losses from early in the season. Now teams can still add the huge wins to make things easier (just ask Georgia), but ultimately, teams are adding only about 10-15% to their resumes in this month. Most everything is settled.

So when a commentator yells after a game 'Team A has punched their ticket!", take it with a grain of salt. Unless it's a conference championship game.

As always, go to http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ for more great brackets!

 

1 Seeds

1 Auburn

2 Duke

3 Alabama

4 Houston

2 Seeds

5 Florida

6 Tennessee

7 Michigan St

8 Wisconsin

3 Seeds

9 Iowa St

10 St Johns

11 Kentucky

12 Texas A&M

4 Seeds

13 Michigan

14 Texas Tech

15 Arizona

16 Purdue

5 Seeds

17 Missouri

18 Maryland

19 Clemson

20 Marquette

6 Seeds

21 St Marys

22 Oregon

23 Kansas

24 Louisville

7 Seeds

25 Mississippi St

26 Ole Miss

27 UCLA

28 Memphis

8 Seeds

29 Illinois

30 BYU

31 Creighton

32 Connecticut

9 Seeds

33 Utah St

34 Gonzaga

35 New Mexico

36 Vanderbilt

10 Seeds

37 Baylor

38 San Diego St

39 West Virginia

40 Drake

11 Seeds

41 VCU

42 Nebraska

43 Arkansas

44 Oklahoma Last Four In

45 Indiana Last Four In

12 Seeds

46 Georgia Last Four In

47 Ohio St Last Four In

48 UC San Diego

49 McNeese

50 Yale

13 Seeds

51 High Point

52 Akron

53 Lipscomb

54 Chattanooga

14 Seeds

55 Jacksonville St

56 Utah Valley

57 James Madison

58 Towson

15 Seeds

59 Montana

60 Robert Morris

61 Norfolk St

62 CCSU

16 Seeds

63 Bryant

64 Southern

65 Omaha

66 Marist

67 American

68 SEMO


Last Four In
Oklahoma
Indiana
Georgia
Ohio St

First Four Out
North Carolina
Texas
Boise St
SMU

Monday, February 24, 2025

Bracketology - 2/24/2025

During this time of year, there is ample focus on the Bubble. And that makes perfect sense, ultimately the majority of the focus will be on Who's In and Who's Out. But for this blurb, I want to highlight a different pursuit that will captivate a good chunk of attention in March: the absurdly good group of 1 seed candidates there are this season.

As of this writing, the Top 6 have clearly separated themselves from the pack. All of them have KenPom ratings above 28, and only Alabama is below 30. Houston has a KPI ranking of 7, which is literally the only ranking outside the Top 6 that any of these teams have in any metric.

To put in perspective, Duke currently has the second highest rating in the history of KenPom (+38.15), and they are not the top overall seed because Auburn has one of the best resumes ever (14 Q1 wins!).

With four of these teams being in the SEC, we are going to see more movement on the 1 line, and it's very possible the SEC Tournament will determine the final 1 seeds. At any rate, there is an incredible amount of good college basketball going on, and we should drink it all in while we can.

As always, go to http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ for more great brackets!

  1 Seeds

1 Auburn

2 Duke

3 Alabama

4 Florida

2 Seeds

5 Houston

6 Tennessee

7 Texas A&M

8 Wisconsin

3 Seeds

9 Iowa St

10 St Johns

11 Michigan St

12 Kentucky

4 Seeds

13 Texas Tech

14 Arizona

15 Purdue

16 Michigan

5 Seeds

17 Missouri

18 Maryland

19 Clemson

20 Marquette

6 Seeds

21 Ole Miss

22 St Marys

23 Kansas

24 Mississippi St

7 Seeds

25 Louisville

26 UCLA

27 Illinois

28 Oregon

8 Seeds

29 Memphis

30 Creighton

31 Connecticut

32 Utah St

9 Seeds

33 Baylor

34 BYU

35 New Mexico

36 Gonzaga

10 Seeds

37 Nebraska

38 West Virginia

39 Vanderbilt

40 San Diego St

11 Seeds

41 VCU

42 Oklahoma

43 Arkansas

44 Texas

45 Indiana

46 Wake Forest

12 Seeds

47 Drake

48 UC San Diego

49 McNeese

50 Yale

13 Seeds

51 Akron

52 High Point

53 Lipscomb

54 Jacksonville St

14 Seeds

55 Chattanooga

56 South Alabama

57 Utah Valley

58 Montana

15 Seeds

59 Towson

60 Cleveland St

61 Norfolk St

62 CCSU

16 Seeds

63 Bryant

64 Southern

65 Omaha

66 Quinnipiac

67 American

68 SEMO


Last Four In

Arkansas
Texas
Indiana
Wake Forest

First Four Out

Ohio St
Georgia
North Carolina
Xavier

Monday, February 17, 2025

Bracketology - 2/17/2025

On Saturday, the NCAA Committee revealed their Top 16 teams with one month to go before Selection Sunday. The seed list was not terribly shocking, but it did reveal a few things:

- The SEC will be very well represented in the bracket. Currently, 5 of the top 6 teams in the bracket are in the SEC. It is very likely that the semi-finals of the SEC tournament will have a better seed average than the Final Four.

- Top wins are still the ticket to the top. Houston has amazing metrics, but were the #8 team in the reveal due to a (relative) lack of Q1A wins. They then went out and won at Arizona, immediately adding their best win of the season. On the flip side, Kentucky has solid metrics, but holds wins over Duke, Florida, and Tennessee (x2). This netted them the #10 spot.

- No one metric dominated the rankings. Each metric seemed to carry relatively equal weight, including the new ones. 

At the end of the day, what garnered teams high seeds in the past decade will give them a high seed this season. This last month should have some incredible basketball, and we should enjoy every bit of it.

As always, go to http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ for more brackets!


1 Seeds

1 Auburn

2 Alabama

3 Duke

4 Florida

2 Seeds

5 Tennessee

6 Texas A&M

7 Houston

8 Purdue

3 Seeds

9 Iowa St

10 Wisconsin

11 Kentucky

12 Texas Tech

4 Seeds

13 Arizona

14 Michigan

15 St Johns

16 Kansas

5 Seeds

17 Michigan St

18 Marquette

19 Ole Miss

20 Missouri

6 Seeds

21 Maryland

22 Illinois

23 UCLA

24 Memphis

7 Seeds

25 Clemson

26 Mississippi St

27 Louisville

28 Creighton

8 Seeds

29 Oregon

30 St Marys

31 Baylor

32 Connecticut

9 Seeds

33 Utah St

34 Ohio St

35 New Mexico

36 Gonzaga

10 Seeds

37 Nebraska

38 West Virginia

39 Vanderbilt

40 Texas

11 Seeds

41 San Diego St

42 BYU

43 Arkansas

44 Oklahoma

45 Wake Forest

46 Drake

12 Seeds

47 George Mason

48 UC San Diego

49 McNeese

50 Yale

13 Seeds

51 Arkansas St

52 Akron

53 High Point

54 Samford

14 Seeds

55 Utah Valley

56 Jacksonville St

57 Lipscomb

58 N Colorado

15 Seeds

59 Towson

60 Cleveland St

61 Norfolk St

62 CCSU

16 Seeds

63 Bryant

64 Southern

65 Omaha

66 Merrimack

67 American

68 SEMO


Last Four In
BYU
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Wake Forest

First Four Out
Georgia
VCU
SMU
Indiana

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Bracketology - 2/11/25

On Saturday, the committee will reveal its current Top 16 teams. This will provide a key snapshot into what the committee is valuing to rank the teams. This will especially come in handy this season, as there are several new metrics the committee is using, such as Torvik and Wins Above Bubble.

Note that this will most factor into how the teams are ranked. With how the teams are selected, that most likely will not be known until Selection Sunday.

As always, go to http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ for more great brackets.


1 Seeds

1 Auburn

2 Alabama

3 Duke

4 Tennessee

2 Seeds

5 Florida

6 Houston

7 Purdue

8 Texas A&M

3 Seeds

9 Iowa St

10 Arizona

11 Kansas

12 Wisconsin

4 Seeds

13 Texas Tech

14 Michigan St

15 St Johns

16 Kentucky

5 Seeds

17 Marquette

18 Michigan

19 Ole Miss

20 Illinois

6 Seeds

21 Memphis

22 Maryland

23 UCLA

24 Missouri

7 Seeds

25 Clemson

26 Mississippi St

27 Louisville

28 Creighton

8 Seeds

29 Oregon

30 Connecticut

31 Baylor

32 St Marys

9 Seeds

33 West Virginia

34 Ohio St

35 Utah St

36 Oklahoma

10 Seeds

37 Gonzaga

38 New Mexico

39 Nebraska

40 Vanderbilt

11 Seeds

41 Texas

42 Georgia Last Four In

43 San Diego St Last Four In

44 Wake Forest Last Four In

45 BYU Last Four In

46 Drake

12 Seeds

47 George Mason

48 UC Irvine

49 McNeese

50 Yale

13 Seeds

51 Arkansas St

52 Grand Canyon

53 Akron

54 High Point

14 Seeds

55 Samford

56 Jacksonville St

57 Lipscomb

58 N Colorado

15 Seeds

59 Cleveland St

60 Towson

61 Norfolk St

62 CCSU

16 Seeds

63 Bryant

64 Southern

65 Omaha

66 Merrimack

67 American

68 Little Rock


Last Four In
Georgia
San Diego St
Wake Forest
BYU

First Four Out
Arkansas
SMU
UCF
North Carolina

Monday, February 3, 2025

Bracketology - 2/3/25

 The first 2025 bracketology is here! This year I will do just a seed list because of time constraints, but this year is shaping up to be as chaotic as ever!


1 Seeds

1 Auburn

2 Alabama

3 Duke

4 Tennessee

2 Seeds

5 Iowa St

6 Houston

7 Florida

8 Purdue

3 Seeds

9 Marquette

10 Texas A&M

11 Michigan St

12 Kansas

4 Seeds

13 Kentucky

14 Texas Tech

15 Arizona

16 Wisconsin

5 Seeds

17 Illinois

18 Michigan

19 Oregon

20 Ole Miss

6 Seeds

21 St Johns

22 Memphis

23 Maryland

24 Clemson

7 Seeds

25 Missouri

26 Mississippi St

27 Louisville

28 Creighton

8 Seeds

29 Connecticut

30 Utah St

31 UCLA

32 St Marys

9 Seeds

33 West Virginia

34 Baylor

35 Oklahoma

36 Gonzaga

10 Seeds

37 Texas

38 Ohio St

39 Georgia

40 New Mexico

11 Seeds

41 Vanderbilt

42 Nebraska Last Four In

43 San Diego St Last Four In

44 Wake Forest Last Four In

45 UCF Last Four In

46 Drake

12 Seeds

47 VCU

48 UC Irvine

49 McNeese

50 Yale

13 Seeds

51 Arkansas St

52 Liberty

53 Grand Canyon

54 Samford

14 Seeds

55 Akron

56 N Colorado

57 Bryant

58 FGCU

15 Seeds

59 Cleveland St

60 Towson

61 Norfolk St

62 UNC-Ashville

16 Seeds

63 CCSU

64 Southern

65 Omaha

66 Marist

67 American

68 Morehead St

Last Four In

Nebraska
San Diego St
Wake Forest
UCF

First Four Out

BYU
North Carolina
Arizona St
Pittsburgh