Bracketology - 2/23/2026

On Saturday, the NCAA committee revealed who the Top 16 teams in the field are with three weeks remaining in the season. While things will change, there are a few items to muse upon:

A. The value of head to head
When the bracket was revealed on Saturday, Iowa State was ahead of Houston in the rankings, which was a slight surprise. In the metrics used to rank the teams, Houston was ahead of Iowa St in all of them. But the Cyclones own the head to head win over the Cougars, rallying from a 10 point deficit in the last 7 minutes to win 70-67. Both teams lost on Saturday, so we will see what circumstances will cause the head to head to hold. But it makes a difference after this past Saturday, with Michigan ahead of Duke in most rankings but the Blue Devils holding the head to head win on a neutral court.

B. The lack of one consistent metric over the rankings
Something the NCAA has been very transparent about over the past decade is that the criteria used to separate teams changes from team to team. The committee "scrubs" its rankings, comparing Team A to Team B if they're right next to each other, and use whatever metric it is to determine who's better. So utilizing one metric to determine who the NCAA seeds will be is a fool's errand.

C. No injury factor - not yet, at least
Kansas has had the most attention upon them in terms of player availability, with Darryn Peterson's status and minutes looming large in Lawrence every game. The committee, rather than try to parse out the weight of every Kansas game, has instead seeded them according to their resume, which on Saturday was 10th overall (though the home loss to Cincinnati does change that). The same went for Texas Tech, who were seeded at their expected spot of 13th overall even with JT Toppin's season-ending injury. As Texas Tech goes through its final run, keep an eye on their performance, as they may be in for a large drop if they clearly are worse without Toppin.

As always, go to http://bracketmatrix.com/ for more brackets!

1 Seeds

1 Duke

2 Michigan

3 Arizona

4 UConn

2 Seeds

5 Iowa St

6 Houston

7 Purdue

8 Illinois

3 Seeds

9 Florida

10 Nebraska

11 Gonzaga

12 Kansas

4 Seeds

13 Texas Tech

14 Michigan St

15 Virginia

16 Vanderbilt

5 Seeds

17 Alabama

18 Arkansas

19 Tennessee

20 St Johns

6 Seeds

21 North Carolina

22 Louisville

23 BYU

24 Villanova

7 Seeds

25 Kentucky

26 Wisconsin

27 St Louis

28 Utah St

8 Seeds

29 NC State

30 Iowa

31 St Marys

32 SMU

9 Seeds

33 Miami (FL)

34 UCF

35 Clemson

36 Texas A&M

10 Seeds

37 Miami (OH)

38 Auburn

39 Indiana

40 Texas

11 Seeds

41 UCLA

42 Georgia

43 Santa Clara

44 Mizzou

45 USC

46 TCU

12 Seeds

47 USF

48 Belmont

49 Yale

50 Liberty

13 Seeds

51 SFA

52 High Point

53 Hawaii

54 UNCW

14 Seeds

55 Cal Baptist

56 NDSU

57 ETSU

58 Austin Peay

15 Seeds

59 Wright St

60 Portland St

61 Navy

62 Troy

16 Seeds

63 Merrimack

64 Long Island

65 Howard

66 Tennessee St

67 Bethune-Cookman

68 UMBC

Last Four In

Santa Clara

Mizzou

USC

TCU

First Four Out

Ohio St

New Mexico

VCU

SDSU

Bracketology - 2/16/2026

Here's a fun fact: There is one team that owns three victories over current Top 5 teams. Any guesses? Well, if you're reading this, you probably already know: it's Texas Tech!

The Red Raiders, despite having almost no bench (360th in bench minutes played), have taken down Houston at home, Duke on a neutral court, and most recently, Arizona on the road. No team in college basketball, not even Michigan, can boast a more impressive top 3 wins.

As Selection Sunday nears, these big wins stand out considerably compared to other resumes. Wisconsin added a road win over Illinois and a home win over Michigan St to their already enourmous road win over Michigan. Even with only decent metrics, Wisconsin has risen from the bubble to a safely in team. 

These last few weeks will provide many a large win opportunity. Who will take it, that is the question?

As always, go to http://bracketmatrix.com/ for more brackets! 

1 Seeds

1 Michigan

2 Duke

3 Arizona

4 UConn

2 Seeds

5 Houston

6 Purdue

7 Iowa St

8 Illinois

3 Seeds

9 Kansas

10 Nebraska

11 Florida

12 Texas Tech

4 Seeds

13 Vanderbilt

14 Gonzaga

15 Michigan St

16 Alabama

5 Seeds

17 Virginia

18 Arkansas

19 St Johns

20 North Carolina

6 Seeds

21 Louisville

22 Tennessee

23 BYU

24 St Louis

7 Seeds

25 Kentucky

26 Villanova

27 Wisconsin

28 Clemson

8 Seeds

29 Utah St

30 NC State

31 Iowa

32 St Marys

9 Seeds

33 Miami (FL)

34 SMU

35 USC

36 UCF

10 Seeds

37 Miami (OH)

38 Indiana

39 Texas A&M

40 Auburn

11 Seeds

41 UCLA

42 Texas

43 Georgia

44 SDSU

45 Santa Clara

46 New Mexico

12 Seeds

47 USF

48 Belmont

49 Liberty

50 Yale

13 Seeds

51 SFA

52 High Point

53 Hawaii

54 UNCW

14 Seeds

55 Cal Baptist

56 NDSU

57 Portland St

58 ETSU

15 Seeds

59 Troy

60 Wright St

61 Austin Peay

62 Navy

16 Seeds

63 UTM

64 Merrimack

65 Long Island

66 Bethune-Cookman

67 Howard

68 Vermont

Last Four In

Georgia

SDSU

Santa Clara

New Mexico

First Four Out

TCU

Ohio St

Virginia Tech

VCU

Bracketology - 2/9/2026

At this point in time, I, like everyone else, would like to highlight the curious case of Miami (OH).

The Redhawks have a bizarre resume. Their predictive metrics are all in the 80s, and their SOS is an abysmal 349th in the country (out of 365). Even with their decent resume metrics (25 in SOR and 34 in WAB), they seem to be toeing the line. But of course, their L column still contains only a 0, which is remarkable.

So where would they be placed? There is slight precedent, though not a ton. The best case in the last 15 seasons would be 2011-12 Murray State. Playing in the terrible OVC that season, Murray State finished 30-1 against a very soft schedule and received a 6 seed. Of course, their SOS was a little better and their metrics were much better (mid-30s), so it's not quite an apples to apples comparison. But the committee will reward teams that emerge mostly unscathed from bad schedules, as winning most every game is quite difficult.

Of course, Miami (OH) has a long way to go. And the simplest thing they can do is go 34-0, win the MAC, and make this all moot.

As always, go to http://bracketmatrix.com/ for more brackets. 

1 Seeds

1 Arizona

2 Michigan

3 Duke

4 UConn

2 Seeds

5 Houston

6 Illinois

7 Iowa St

8 Nebraska

3 Seeds

9 Michigan St

10 Purdue

11 Kansas

12 Florida

4 Seeds

13 Vanderbilt

14 Texas Tech

15 Gonzaga

16 Virginia

5 Seeds

17 North Carolina

18 Alabama

19 St Johns

20 Arkansas

6 Seeds

21 Tennessee

22 Louisville

23 Clemson

24 BYU

7 Seeds

25 St Louis

26 Kentucky

27 Iowa

28 Villanova

8 Seeds

29 Utah St

30 NC State

31 Auburn

32 UCF

9 Seeds

33 SMU

34 Texas A&M

35 St Marys

36 Georgia

10 Seeds

37 Wisconsin

38 Miami (OH)

39 USC

40 Indiana

11 Seeds

41 UCLA

42 Miami (FL)

43 Oklahoma St

44 SDSU

45 Santa Clara

46 Ohio St

12 Seeds

47 Tulsa

48 Belmont

49 Liberty

50 Yale

13 Seeds

51 SFA

52 High Point

53 Hawaii

54 UNCW

14 Seeds

55 Cal Baptist

56 NDSU

57 Troy

58 ETSU

15 Seeds

59 Portland St

60 Wright St

61 Austin Peay

62 Navy

16 Seeds

63 UTM

64 Merrimack

65 Long Island

66 Bethune-Cookman

67 Vermont

68 NC Central

Last Four In

Oklahoma St

SDSU

Santa Clara

Ohio St

First Four Out

Cal

Missouri

Virginia Tech

Texas

Bracketology - 2/2/2-26

As the calendar turns to February, bracketology now begins to take focus. Every team has played at least 20 games, and there is real substance to analyze rather than just predictions.

Last year we saw an incredibly strong bracket at the top, with all four 1 seeds having Efficiency Margins above +35. This season thus far, it looks to be even stronger, with an astonishing 10 teams having EMs above +30 (for comparison's sake, 2023 had 0). This season is one of giants, and it results in many teams having 1 seed worthy resumes thus far but being knocked down to the 2 line.

As February progresses, teams at the top will take hits and losses, and the contenders will show themselves. Although it is unlikely that will have as obvious of a Top 4 as last season, there will be a clear upper echelon of squads that will be disappointed if they don't make deep runs in March. The basketball should be crazy fun.

As always, please go to http://bracketmatrix.com/ for other great brackets. Last season, I finished tied for 9th out of 250 brackets, the goal is to get back up there again! 

1 Seeds

1 Arizona Auto

2 Duke Auto

3 Michigan Auto

4 UConn Auto

2 Seeds

5 Illinois

6 Iowa St

7 Houston

8 Nebraska

3 Seeds

9 Michigan St

10 Purdue

11 Vanderbilt Auto

12 Gonzaga Auto

4 Seeds

13 Kansas

14 Texas Tech

15 Florida

16 Virginia

5 Seeds

17 BYU

18 Tennessee

19 Arkansas

20 North Carolina

6 Seeds

21 Alabama

22 Louisville

23 St Johns

24 Clemson

7 Seeds

25 Kentucky

26 St Louis Auto

27 UCF

28 Auburn

8 Seeds

29 Texas A&M

30 Villanova

31 SMU

32 Iowa

9 Seeds

33 Utah St Auto

34 NC State

35 Wisconsin

36 St Marys

10 Seeds

37 Georgia

38 Miami (OH) Auto

39 USC

40 Indiana

11 Seeds

41 New Mexico

42 UCLA

43 Cal Last Four In

44 Miami (FL) Last Four In

45 George Mason Last Four In

46 Ohio St Last Four In

12 Seeds

47 Tulsa Auto

48 Belmont Auto

49 Liberty Auto

50 Yale Auto

13 Seeds

51 SFA Auto

52 High Point Auto

53 Hawaii Auto

54 Utah Valley Auto

14 Seeds

55 UNCW Auto

56 NDSU Auto

57 Troy Auto

58 Wright St Auto

15 Seeds

59 ETSU Auto

60 Austin Peay Auto

61 Portland St Auto

62 UTM Auto

16 Seeds

63 Navy Auto

64 Merrimack Auto

65 Long Island Auto

66 Vermont Auto

67 Bethune-Cookman Auto

68 UMES Auto

Last Four In

Cal

Miami (FL)

George Mason

Ohio St

First Four Out

Santa Clara

San Diego St

Virginia Tech

Oklahoma St