On Saturday, the NCAA committee revealed who the Top 16 teams in the field are with three weeks remaining in the season. While things will change, there are a few items to muse upon:
A. The value of head to head
When the bracket was revealed on Saturday, Iowa State was ahead of Houston in the rankings, which was a slight surprise. In the metrics used to rank the teams, Houston was ahead of Iowa St in all of them. But the Cyclones own the head to head win over the Cougars, rallying from a 10 point deficit in the last 7 minutes to win 70-67. Both teams lost on Saturday, so we will see what circumstances will cause the head to head to hold. But it makes a difference after this past Saturday, with Michigan ahead of Duke in most rankings but the Blue Devils holding the head to head win on a neutral court.
B. The lack of one consistent metric over the rankings
Something the NCAA has been very transparent about over the past decade is that the criteria used to separate teams changes from team to team. The committee "scrubs" its rankings, comparing Team A to Team B if they're right next to each other, and use whatever metric it is to determine who's better. So utilizing one metric to determine who the NCAA seeds will be is a fool's errand.
C. No injury factor - not yet, at least
Kansas has had the most attention upon them in terms of player availability, with Darryn Peterson's status and minutes looming large in Lawrence every game. The committee, rather than try to parse out the weight of every Kansas game, has instead seeded them according to their resume, which on Saturday was 10th overall (though the home loss to Cincinnati does change that). The same went for Texas Tech, who were seeded at their expected spot of 13th overall even with JT Toppin's season-ending injury. As Texas Tech goes through its final run, keep an eye on their performance, as they may be in for a large drop if they clearly are worse without Toppin.
As always, go to http://bracketmatrix.com/ for more brackets!
1 Seeds
1 Duke
2 Michigan
3 Arizona
4 UConn
2 Seeds
5 Iowa St
6 Houston
7 Purdue
8 Illinois
3 Seeds
9 Florida
10 Nebraska
11 Gonzaga
12 Kansas
4 Seeds
13 Texas Tech
14 Michigan St
15 Virginia
16 Vanderbilt
5 Seeds
17 Alabama
18 Arkansas
19 Tennessee
20 St Johns
6 Seeds
21 North Carolina
22 Louisville
23 BYU
24 Villanova
7 Seeds
25 Kentucky
26 Wisconsin
27 St Louis
28 Utah St
8 Seeds
29 NC State
30 Iowa
31 St Marys
32 SMU
9 Seeds
33 Miami (FL)
34 UCF
35 Clemson
36 Texas A&M
10 Seeds
37 Miami (OH)
38 Auburn
39 Indiana
40 Texas
11 Seeds
41 UCLA
42 Georgia
43 Santa Clara
44 Mizzou
45 USC
46 TCU
12 Seeds
47 USF
48 Belmont
49 Yale
50 Liberty
13 Seeds
51 SFA
52 High Point
53 Hawaii
54 UNCW
14 Seeds
55 Cal Baptist
56 NDSU
57 ETSU
58 Austin Peay
15 Seeds
59 Wright St
60 Portland St
61 Navy
62 Troy
16 Seeds
63 Merrimack
64 Long Island
65 Howard
66 Tennessee St
67 Bethune-Cookman
68 UMBC
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