Monday, February 23, 2026

Bracketology - 2/23/2026

On Saturday, the NCAA committee revealed who the Top 16 teams in the field are with three weeks remaining in the season. While things will change, there are a few items to muse upon:

A. The value of head to head
When the bracket was revealed on Saturday, Iowa State was ahead of Houston in the rankings, which was a slight surprise. In the metrics used to rank the teams, Houston was ahead of Iowa St in all of them. But the Cyclones own the head to head win over the Cougars, rallying from a 10 point deficit in the last 7 minutes to win 70-67. Both teams lost on Saturday, so we will see what circumstances will cause the head to head to hold. But it makes a difference after this past Saturday, with Michigan ahead of Duke in most rankings but the Blue Devils holding the head to head win on a neutral court.

B. The lack of one consistent metric over the rankings
Something the NCAA has been very transparent about over the past decade is that the criteria used to separate teams changes from team to team. The committee "scrubs" its rankings, comparing Team A to Team B if they're right next to each other, and use whatever metric it is to determine who's better. So utilizing one metric to determine who the NCAA seeds will be is a fool's errand.

C. No injury factor - not yet, at least
Kansas has had the most attention upon them in terms of player availability, with Darryn Peterson's status and minutes looming large in Lawrence every game. The committee, rather than try to parse out the weight of every Kansas game, has instead seeded them according to their resume, which on Saturday was 10th overall (though the home loss to Cincinnati does change that). The same went for Texas Tech, who were seeded at their expected spot of 13th overall even with JT Toppin's season-ending injury. As Texas Tech goes through its final run, keep an eye on their performance, as they may be in for a large drop if they clearly are worse without Toppin.

As always, go to http://bracketmatrix.com/ for more brackets!


1 Seeds

1 Duke

2 Michigan

3 Arizona

4 UConn

2 Seeds

5 Iowa St

6 Houston

7 Purdue

8 Illinois

3 Seeds

9 Florida

10 Nebraska

11 Gonzaga

12 Kansas

4 Seeds

13 Texas Tech

14 Michigan St

15 Virginia

16 Vanderbilt

5 Seeds

17 Alabama

18 Arkansas

19 Tennessee

20 St Johns

6 Seeds

21 North Carolina

22 Louisville

23 BYU

24 Villanova

7 Seeds

25 Kentucky

26 Wisconsin

27 St Louis

28 Utah St

8 Seeds

29 NC State

30 Iowa

31 St Marys

32 SMU

9 Seeds

33 Miami (FL)

34 UCF

35 Clemson

36 Texas A&M

10 Seeds

37 Miami (OH)

38 Auburn

39 Indiana

40 Texas

11 Seeds

41 UCLA

42 Georgia

43 Santa Clara

44 Mizzou

45 USC

46 TCU

12 Seeds

47 USF

48 Belmont

49 Yale

50 Liberty

13 Seeds

51 SFA

52 High Point

53 Hawaii

54 UNCW

14 Seeds

55 Cal Baptist

56 NDSU

57 ETSU

58 Austin Peay

15 Seeds

59 Wright St

60 Portland St

61 Navy

62 Troy

16 Seeds

63 Merrimack

64 Long Island

65 Howard

66 Tennessee St

67 Bethune-Cookman

68 UMBC


Last Four In
Santa Clara
Mizzou
USC
TCU

First Four Out
Ohio St
New Mexico
VCU
SDSU

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